Alvin Tofller and Heidi Tofller, in their prophetic book from the late 70s of the last century: “The Third Wave”, stated “that many of the current changes are not independent of each other. They are not the result of chance… these and many other apparently unconnected events or trends are related to each other… they are parts of a much broader phenomenon: the death of industrialism and the birth of a new civilization.”
“The world that is rapidly emerging from the clash of new values and technologies, new geopolitical relations, new lifestyles and modes of communication, demands completely new ideas and analogies, classifications and concepts”, they have written in their usual seductive language.
These ideas reflected in the last 30 years of the end of the 20th century and the dawn of the arrival of the 21st century, today are more eschatological, if we see the latest events that have occurred in the world that we still cannot decode in all their magnitude and that every day gives us a lesson in disruption in the broadest of senses.
These fin-de-siècle years, for Central America, were of tensions, of searches for disagreements, a center of ideological essays resulting from the Cold War and the tensions between the superpowers and emerging spaces, the Isthmus found itself in the maelstrom of global changes, for being the center of a route, which in addition to being essential for the world economy, and the very arrival of what they called globalization, which was barely taking off to structure a new order, was also and is, in To a large extent today, the place where once again, the new hegemonic test and “the clash of civilizations” takes place.
In this part of the world, without it being a prediction, part of the supremacy of a world is being played out, more than unipolar, multipolar, until then, and that, with the ascension of Donald Trump in his second term, he wants to revive what seemed to be buried, “the Monroe Doctrine”, now hand in hand with the “New National Security Strategy” under the euphemistic phrase: “This hemisphere is ours.”
“THEY WILL COME FROM OUTSIDE, AND THEY WILL THROW YOU OUT FROM THE HOUSE”
This space of the Americas being a place with a long history of ruptures, convergences and divergences, where empires, specifically the Spanish, to a lesser extent the English, and further back, the Aztec empire, left their marks on the native populations, always fighting to keep their values, their beliefs and cultures, their strategic capabilities standing. The great men of independence arrived, trained in the same spaces as the conquerors, and rewrote the stories. Until the adventurers arrived in these lands, “the Pirate William Walker and his doctrine of Manifest Destiny”, claiming possession of what he never had, being murdered in Honduras in 1860, beaten by the dignity that never left the lives of the men and women of these lands.
The years of dictatorships left bittersweet lessons, “the national state” was forged, if you will, the way to permeate consciences and the ideology coupled with the slogan and the subjugation that “this is my backyard”, emerged. And the catastrophe happened, a product of the miseries of the majority of citizens plunged into the most atrocious ostracism, in the face of elites who considered themselves insufferable with respect to their citizens. And then death came at the hands of the armed conflicts of the 70s, 80s and 90s of the last century, until the laboratory of the great powers that were the confrontations with an ideological nature ceased, but no, they were due to insurmountable inequalities, they followed one another and peace was signed, a half-hearted, insipid and colorless peace. And then the theft of economic resources and the implementation of models that would bring more misery to these populations came from the hand of submissive governments: neoliberalism.
CURRENT CENTRAL AMERICA
After the years of military confrontations that resulted in moderately democratic governments, then came the political and class confrontations, where the so-called “civil society” played a role in decisions that helped permeate the future of what is today the Isthmus. The elections, after the Peace Agreements in the different countries in conflict, legitimized the status quo that the dominant sectors wanted to happen, but a class of thinkers was forging the route that would take us to what the region is today.
And there was a change of course, the wave of the left broke out in some countries, after the revolts: Nicaragua, a pause, then again until today with ups and downs; El Salvador, two governments that helped forge progressive thinking and facilitate many citizens to escape extreme poverty and where education played a stellar role. Guatemala was struggling between problems of governance and crime and Honduras in those years had the highest rates of violence in the Isthmus, as did El Salvador with the social illness of gangs and criminal groups, coupled with what the drug cartels created throughout the region: violence and social instability.
The leftists did not know how to take advantage of the support of the population that supported them with their vote and committed the same mistakes as the dominant groups: corruption, lack of fulfillment of promises, although in human rights there was a change in how society saw it. The emergence of Venezuela with its commander Chavez and the support of the Alba Initiative for the Americas, gave a turn to the relationship between these countries and the United States, which later, today, would be the straw that broke the camel’s back of this change in cycle and direction that the region is experiencing with respect to governments.
El Salvador no longer has the seal of a left, rather it has a government that came to restore what they knew how to do but did not do, citizen security, which society clamored for so much; Honduras loses a golden opportunity by leaving its first center-left government due to the same mistakes of its peers in the region and just as in South America, the leftist wave leaves political power, it is not strange that Costa Rica continues in its aegis of a center-right government, Guatemala has a liberal in power and Honduras makes its debut again with a government that we will have to see what it brings after January 27 when it takes office. Nicaragua is the riddle, after the events in Venezuela and the onslaught of hard power that has emboldened those who govern in Washington. Panama is a world apart that will have to take its case directly with the North, after the threats because, “that canal is ours and it is not for Chinese ships to cross “like Pedro through his house.”
THE ARRIVAL OF CHINA AND THE NEGLECT OF THE BACKYARD
Actually, the arrival of China has been planned many years ago, more than 50 years ago, and today it is a reality. “The new Silk Road”, apart from the fact that it is an economic bet for the average citizen, is nothing more than a political strategy of penetration as an emerging and hegemonic power: to remove the presence of a United States that had neglected its environment, in search of the energy riches of the countries that it subjugated in its invasions in the Middle East, under the excuse of terrorism.
China landed first in Costa Rica and was the big noise for the United States, then followed by El Salvador, the Dominican Republic, Panama and finally Honduras; all countries belonging to the Central American Integration System, SICA, the others: Belize, Guatemala and Nicaragua have preferred to continue cooperation with Taiwan, under the understanding that China does not accept that there is a half-hearted agreement because they recognize themselves as one China.
And this arrival has a geostrategic component, for its “silk road” economically, but politically, it is to create a pulse with its closest contender in the Western Hemisphere, since Russia has most of the time functioned as an ally. Central America, if you draw a line from the Salvadoran Pacific to a couple of Chinese cities, the route is almost direct and there is China’s great strategy in the Isthmus: to have control of the economy and trade routes, just think about China’s request to some countries to create a special trade zone with the space of movement
Gulf of Fonseca: the gringos opened their eyes and said no. That is to shield its presence in the region.
Today Central America, apart from being a space for growth, an area of high logistical power for all global competitors, due to its strategic enclave; Its value is not only geopolitical, geographically speaking, at a time when the “Monroe Doctrine” has gained strength with the emboldening of North American power that will not let another take its place. Hopefully it’s not too late; It is also a geoeconomic space, for what I expressed above: this area of the world is in dispute for the immense riches it possesses. For the rare minerals that are being discovered and that are essential for the survival of large technological, space and military power companies. Therefore, the bet and what is at stake today, and that will increase every time the big players make their risky bets that by increasing their economic power of the government and large corporations, put the regional security of millions of human beings at risk.
I am going to finish as I began this work: bringing up the Toffer spouses’ latest book: “The Wars of the Future”, written in 2003, in this exciting book they analyze what the conflicts of the future would be, as well as in “The Third Wave”, and it speaks precisely that the wars of the future, cybernetic, digital, with drones, “the tactics of cyberwarfare and indirect conflicts we can see in the news every day”
“Cyber warfare can leave a population of millions of people without resources by attacking power plants or hospitals. It can take down a government’s website. It can misinform before an election or carry out so-called fake bombing.” We have just seen it in Honduras, to give just one example.
“Also in the third wave war, weapons will be more software than rifles, and mastering the flow of information – especially with electronic warfare – will be more decisive than physical destruction.” The conflicts of the future will be over resources that are increasingly scarce, especially water, and energy resources.
That is what is about to happen in the power strategy in the Central American Isthmus. World powers know the importance of the region for the consolidation of their strategies of global control and domination, especially in the economic spectrum. Because this will be the most terrible war that is already being fought, and that will permeate our future and that of millions of human beings. And for that, a vaccine has not been invented that is capable of inoculating the hope of a better time.
Dionysius of Jesus
Poet, diplomat, marketer and specialist in political communication. Born in Cevicos, Dominican Republic (1959), he studied Education with a minor in Philosophy and Letters at the Autonomous University of Santo Domingo (UASD). Later he delved into the world of marketing and communication: he completed a postgraduate degree in Marketing at UCSD (where he was also a teacher), he obtained a Master’s Degree in Marketing at PUCMM (where he taught classes), and he completed a specialization in Corporate Communication (image advertising and public relations) at Young & Rubicam, Madrid, approved by the Complutense University. His diplomatic vocation has been strengthened with multiple specialized training: Diploma in Cultural Diplomacy (sponsored by the Foreign Ministries of Costa Rica and El Salvador together with the Dominican Embassy in Costa Rica), Specialization in Negotiation and Climate Diplomacy (INESDYC, Dominican Foreign Ministry), and several diploma courses on institutions and the Central American Integration System (SICA), including levels I and II with the Hanns Seidel Foundation (pending the presentation of the final work to opt for the Master’s degree). As a poet, he has published 12 books of poetry and his texts appear in more than 15 national and international anthologies, consolidating him as a recognized voice in Dominican and Central American poetry. In the professional field, he was Creative Director in the most important advertising agencies in the Dominican Republic between 1987 and 2004. He has served as a university professor of marketing, advertising and communication in institutions in the Dominican Republic and El Salvador. From 2000 to date (2025), he has worked as a strategic consultant in political campaigns in the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Guatemala and Honduras. He currently resides in El Salvador, from where he produces and hosts every Monday at 7:00 pm (local time) the Podcast “Bitácora Centroamericana y Caribeña”, broadcast live on YouTube and Facebook through the Cronio TV platform, a space from which he analyzes in depth the political, cultural and geopolitical reality of the region. A tireless creator who moves naturally between verse, diplomacy, political strategy and Central American reflection.
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