The results of Pakistan’s general elections were surprising. Most analysts and observers were expecting an easy victory for three-time prime minister Nawaz Sharif’s party. The reasoning behind this was that he had the support of the country’s powerful army. Another popular politician and former Prime Minister Imran Khan was imprisoned on charges of corruption and illegal marriage. He and his party were not allowed to participate in the elections. However, independent candidates supported by Imran won the most seats in the polls. Nawaz’s party has to scramble to form a coalition to form the government. Experts say the poll results indicate that the government that will be formed will be weak. Which will be convenient for the military structure behind the country’s power. They warn that Pakistan may be entering a long period of political instability.
A potential prime minister needs the support of 169 people in the 366-seat National Assembly to form a government in Pakistan. Of these, 70 seats are reserved, 60 for women and 10 for non-Muslims. The reserved seats are distributed in proportion to the number of seats won by the parties. According to Pakistani law, independent candidates do not get any reserved seats in Parliament.
Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) won 54 seats in this election. According to the party, they have not had formal discussions on government formation with either Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) or Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N). However, Bilawal’s father confirmed that an informal meeting was held in Lahore with Nawaz’s brother Shahbaz Sharif.
Karachi-based Muttahida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan (MQM-P) has won 17 seats this time. The party can also play an important role in forming any coalition government.
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Chatham House think tank Dr. Farzana Sheikh said Imran-backed independents have little chance of forming a government and many people fear that the alliance between PML-N and PPP will be a weak and unstable alliance.
In the result, Imran Khan’s PTI supporters won most of the seats, but it is not yet clear who will form Pakistan’s next government. Which is giving rise to a political chaotic environment.
PTI Chairman Gahar Ali Khan emphasized the party’s aim to form the government. However, there are many hurdles ahead of them. Despite winning most of the seats, the party did not get enough majority to form the government. He said, the results are clear, we are the majority party and we are going to form the government. The people have given the verdict, they have given us the responsibility of forming the government. This mandate should be respected before they hit the streets. People have spoken, they want Pakistan to be free and democratic.
Gahar Khan termed PTI’s government formation initiative as ‘times with the times’. He made this comment at a time when Pakistan’s so-called ‘Game of Thrones’ has started. PMLN and PPP held an informal meeting on Friday night. Later on Saturday they had a meeting with other small groups. The aim of these meetings was to secure a majority to keep the PTI out of power.
The issue of Imran Khan’s agreement with the army cannot be completely ruled out. The Pakistani people’s stand against the army’s interference in the elections will surely put pressure on Army Chief General Syed Asim Munir after the results are announced.
The army chief must now decide whether to settle the dispute with Imran or go ahead without hesitation and form an alliance of anti-Khan politicians. Analysts feel that such a coalition government would be weak and unsustainable.
In a statement on Saturday, General Munir called for unity and normalcy. Many are taking this statement as an indication of his readiness to work with Imran Khan.
Imran was granted bail in several cases on Saturday. One of these cases involved an attack on an army installation by his supporters. However, he is facing decades of imprisonment after being convicted in other cases.
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PTI lawyer Umair Khan Niazi on Saturday hinted that Imran Khan is ready to forget what happened. The party’s founder decided to form the government at the Center and in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
Niazi said Imran urged the country’s rulers not to allow Nawaz Sharif to form a coalition government. Because such experiments have not worked before. He is ready to move forward for political stability and the future of the country.
After the army chief’s speech and PTI lawyer’s speech, another compromise in Pakistan’s complex political arena cannot be completely ruled out.
Both PML-N and PPP, Imran’s political rivals, are considered family parties in the country. The Sharif and Bhutto families, headed by these two parties, have ruled the country at different times for several generations.
Former minister of Pakistan and senior leader of PML-N Khurram Dastgir Khan said, we will form the government. But the issue of alliance is still not decided.
PML-N and PPP have confirmed that they have not discussed forming an alliance with PTI.
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Analysts say the president’s invitation to the largest party to form a government or defections in exchange for money or favors could happen days before the formation of a coalition is finalised.
In Pakistan, the military is considered the arbiter of power politics. Their role in determining election results has been seen over the past few decades. Apart from that, they directly seized power through four coups.
Before the elections it was clear that the army leadership wanted to prevent Imran Khan from coming to power at all costs. In 2018, he won with the support of the army. The military also had influence over his government. But when there was a rift in their relationship, the generals ensured his downfall from behind the scenes.
Gahar Ali Khan says the establishment – the term used to refer to the military – was the driving force behind everything. They might have decided everything before the election. But I don’t think they expected such support from people. He now directly called on the ‘supreme institution’ to accept the people’s mandate.
He said, the establishment should stay out of politics, PTI is adamant on this position. They must not interfere in the political arena. They will not form the government. It should close now.
Nevertheless, the invisible hand of the military was seen to play a role in the election results.
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Nawaz Sharif returned from political exile as a result of a behind-the-scenes compromise with the army leadership. But his relationship with the military is not very good. He has been ousted each time he has challenged the power of the military during his three previous terms in power.
Analysts and PML-N party sources say that the weak and coalition government that is expected to come to power after the election results will implement the army’s agenda. It will ensure that no one can challenge the political and commercial interests of the army.
According to those close to Nawaz, he is taking the election result as a big betrayal. Many believe that if there is an agreement with the alliance partners, then maybe his younger brother Shahbaz Sharif can become the prime minister instead.
A senior PML-N leader said, “I think the military establishment has become suspicious of Nawaz’s desire to come to power with a majority in Parliament.” They fear that the old Nawaz may return. As a result, they wanted to teach him a lesson.
Political analyst Naeem Malik has expressed almost the same opinion. He said, I think the army is satisfied with this result. If there is division and polarization in the society then their advantage. They control through oppression. As a result, a hung parliament favors incumbents. Their position in the political arena is secure and unimpeded.
Sources: BBC, The Guardian, New York Times, Dawn
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