In 2024, the real growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) production in Azerbaijan is expected to reach 121.3 billion manats in nominal terms, with a real growth of 3.8%.
Publika.az reports that this is stated in the statement of the Ministry of Finance regarding its expectations for the end of the year.
This is 3 billion manats more than the forecast presented during the drafting of the state budget.
Non-oil GDP is expected at the level of 84.7 billion manats (0.6 billion manats more than the previous forecast). The real GDP growth forecast for the non-oil/gas sector has been raised from 4.6% to 5.5%.
“According to the forecasts presented by the Ministry of Economy during the review of the draft of the 2024 state budget (in October 2023), the GDP will be 118.4 billion manats, the non-oil/gas GDP will be 84.2 billion manats, and the real growth rate will be 2.4% and 4.6%.However, higher than expected GDP in 2023, macro-fiscal results recorded in the first 6 months of 2024, as well as global economic growth and energy carrier prices “The expectations for the end of 2024 have made it necessary to refine and update the macroeconomic forecasts for the current year,” the reference says.
The forecast for global growth in 2024 issued by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in July of this year was kept unchanged from April (3.2%), while the World Bank forecast global growth in June of this year by 0.2 compared to the previously presented forecast. increased by a percentage point and determined at 2.6%. In the first half of this year, the prevailing geopolitical and geoeconomic tensions and commercial fragmentations, the observation of price fluctuations in the global commodity markets, and the weakening of disinflationary tendencies were the factors affecting the uncertainty related to global economic expectations.
According to the latest forecasts of international financial institutions and agencies, the average annual selling price of one barrel of crude oil is predicted to be around 75-85 US dollars. The average annual export price of one barrel of crude oil, which was accepted at the level of 60 US dollars for the calculations of the state budget of 2024, was increased to 75 US dollars by the revision of the state budget.
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