MEXICO CITY (France24) – Uruguay held its internal elections on Sunday, June 30, with low turnout, thus defining the presidential candidates ahead of the general elections on October 27. With 36% of eligible voters going to the polls, below the 40% recorded in 2019, the results highlighted Yamandú Orsi, of the Frente Amplio; Álvaro Delgado, of the National Party, and Andrés Ojeda, of the Colorado Party as the main contenders. What do these results imply and what challenges will the next president face? We explain.
On Sunday, June 30, Uruguay held internal party elections, a crucial step towards the presidential elections on October 27.
These elections defined the candidates of the main political parties, with an approximate participation of 986,829 voters, according to data from the Electoral Court of Uruguay. This figure, which represents 36% of those eligible to vote, is lower than the 40% registered in 2019.
Yamandú Orsi of the Broad Front (FA), Álvaro Delgado of the National Party (PN) and Andrés Ojeda of the Colorado Party were the clear winners of the internal election, consolidating their positions as the main candidates for the presidential elections in October.
Eduardo Bottinelli, professor and researcher at the University of the Republic and director of the consulting firm Factum, told France 24 that “the electoral campaign for the primaries took place in a somewhat strange context for Uruguay.”
“On the one hand, it is the first time that the Frente Amplio is facing an election where it is the opposition having been in government. The National Party is also facing its first internal election where it is the governing party,” said Botinelli.
Since the electoral reform of 1996, Uruguay has held internal party elections to elect presidential candidates. The first internal election was held in April 1999.
Currently, primaries in Uruguay are held on the last Sunday of June. These elections are open, simultaneous and mandatory for the parties. Although voting is not mandatory for citizens, parties seeking to present presidential candidates in the general elections must participate in these primaries.
During the election day, not only were the presidential candidates defined, but the members of the National and Departmental Deliberative Bodies of each party were also elected.
In order to participate in the national elections in October, parties were required to exceed the threshold of 500 votes, an essential requirement to maintain their political viability and presence in the electoral process.
Results of the internal party elections
In the internal elections, the center-right National Party (PN) and the center-left Broad Front (FA) were involved in a contest that outlined the political landscape ahead of the presidential elections in October.
The National Party, the current ruling party, accumulated a total of 323,930 votes. Álvaro Delgado emerged as the clear winner of the internal elections, consolidating his leadership with a resounding 74.43%, according to official data from the Electoral Court of Uruguay.
Delgado, who was Secretary of the Presidency under the current government, represents the continuity of the policies implemented by Luis Lacalle Pou. His victory over Laura Raffo, who obtained 19.23%, underlines a desire for stability and continuity.
Late on Sunday, from the Plaza Matriz in Montevideo, Delgado called on the National Party to adopt a new paradigm, one in which it encourages the construction of bridges to society. At the same time, he announced that Valeria Ripoll, a historic leader of the Association of Municipal Employees and Workers and a television panelist, will join the presidential ticket as a candidate for Vice-President.
In addition, the PN candidate announced that the current president, Luis Lacalle Pou, will be part of the list for the Senate of the Republic.
“Today I am the standard-bearer of the will of the whites – as the militants of the PN are called – but the flag is always more important than the standard-bearer,” stressed the former Secretary of the Presidency, who stated that he no longer has a party “sector” and that his sector now includes “the entire National Party.”
For her part, Raffo, an economist who had previously been a candidate for the Montevideo mayoralty, failed to attract the same level of support. From her campaign headquarters, she indicated that “a stage of unity is beginning” within the National Party in view of the October elections and the possible second round, which would be held in November.
“From now on, we will all be united in the same boat to ensure a second coalition government, led by the National Party,” the economist added.
On the other hand, the Broad Front, the main opposition force, managed to collect 410,282 votes and experienced a competition between the two main candidates: Yamandú Orsi and Carolina Cosse.
Orsi, the mayor of the department of Canelones, won with 59.14% of the votes, while Cosse, current mayor of Montevideo, received 37.60%.
On a cold night in Montevideo, Yamandú Orsi thanked the militants from a stage in front of the Frente Amplio headquarters and announced that Carolina Cosse will be the candidate for Vice President on the presidential ticket.
The winner of the internal elections said that, “we are the change and we seek change.” He added that “there is a united Broad Front, which guarantees the path to the future and to victory in October.”
With the campaign slogan “We came to unite” on the stage screen, Yamandú Orsi stated: “We want to build a more just country; unite to integrate.” He also said: “With Carolina, we are heading towards victory, which is the victory of the Uruguayan people.”
In a brief speech, Carolina Cosse said: “Today was a very important milestone; the Frente Amplio has begun to return.”
In addition to these two main parties, other political forces have also defined their candidates. The Colorado Party, one of Uruguay’s traditional parties, confirmed lawyer Andrés Ojeda as its presidential candidate.
The Colorado candidate said that when he started his campaign “nobody gave a damn.” “Many people said ‘you have the skills, but it’s not your time’. It seems that now is the time,” said the lawyer.
In addition to the main parties, Cabildo Abierto, a far-right party allied with the Lacalle Pou government and which has parliamentary representation, also participated in these primaries.
Cabildo Abierto, led by Guido Manini Ríos, consolidated its presence by choosing him again as its standard-bearer. This party has gained relevance in recent years due to its focus on “security” and “national sovereignty.”
The newly formed Libertarian Party, aligned with the ideas of Argentine economist Javier Milei, did not surpass the threshold of 500 votes needed to compete in the general elections. With only 485 votes, the pre-candidate Nelson Petkovich was left out of the presidential race.
The impact of the results on Uruguayan politics
The National Party faces a complex political panorama after five years in power. During this period, the party has managed to maintain a coalition of three political forces: the National Party, the Colorado Party and Cabildo Abierto.
For Mauro Casa, a political scientist and professor at the Institute of Political Science at the University of the Republic, the National Party has been successful in carrying out this coalition. The expert highlights its ability to “share government with the Colorado Party and Cabildo Abierto.” This collaboration, which spans from the center-right to the extreme right, required the National Party to make numerous concessions in public policies to maintain stability.
However, the challenge for the National Party in the upcoming elections is twofold. First, it must face an election without the possibility of presidential re-election, given that “President Lacalle Pou, who enjoys relative popularity, cannot seek re-election,” Casa explained to France 24.
This means that the party must present a new candidate, in this case Alvaro Delgado, who must try to show continuity with the government and present himself as constitutionally prohibited from re-election.
However, Delgado faces the difficulty of not having the same level of recognition or charisma as the current president, which complicates his task of connecting with the electorate.
Secondly, the National Party must maintain the cohesion of the governing coalition, which has worked but has been fraught with tensions.
Casa stresses that the junior partners in the coalition are seeking to “displace the National Party from being that primus inter pares” and to reach the Presidency with the support of the other political forces. This creates a complex dynamic of “collaboration and competition”, where, although all parties are obliged to cooperate, they are also in a phase of competition.
For its part, the Frente Amplio faces the challenge of regaining power after the electoral defeat of 2019, which put an end to 15 years of largely successful administration under the leadership of Tabaré Vázquez and José ‘Pepe’ Mujica. During this period, significant progress was made in economic management and in the improvement of social and employment indicators, leaving a legacy that the coalition seeks to revitalize in its attempt to return to government.
Casa emphasizes that for the Frente Amplio, the main challenge is “to get many people who distanced themselves and stopped voting for them in 2019 to vote again, particularly in the interior of the country.” While in Montevideo the Frente Amplio maintained a hegemony for more than 30 years, the objective is to reconnect with rural and suburban areas, where they seek to ensure that these populations again approach their government proposal.
A process of deterioration of political discussion that has increasingly focused on confrontation over who did things worse
Confidence in political parties in Uruguay has experienced a notable decline in recent decades, reflecting a significant erosion in public perception. According to Eduardo Bottinelli, although Uruguay remains one of the countries in the region with the greatest confidence in its parties, the deterioration is evident.
“Confidence in political parties in Uruguay has been declining,” Bottinelli said, noting that this decline is linked to the inability of various governments to address and resolve the problems that citizens consider most urgent.
This process of mistrust is also fuelled by a deterioration in the quality of political debate, which has increasingly focused on confrontation and less on the discussion of constructive ideas.
Bottinelli told France 24 that political discussion has become more focused on confrontation and blame: “a process of deterioration of political discussion that has increasingly focused on confrontation over who did things worse or shifting the blame onto the other.” This dynamic has given rise to an environment where personal attacks are more frequent than debate over concrete proposals and policies.
As a result, people who are not actively involved in politics tend to distance themselves from public debate and often perceive conflicts as meaningless fights. Bottinelli stresses that those who observe politics from the outside often feel that “politicians are fighting again”, without fully understanding the underlying reasons or the ideas at stake.
This perception contributes to apathy and distancing of citizens from politics, which further aggravates distrust towards parties and their leaders.
The challenges facing the next president of Uruguay
A critical challenge for the next government is transparency in the financing of political parties. According to Casa, the link between money and politics in Uruguay remains problematic. “The financing of political parties is a black box,” says the political scientist, highlighting the lack of robust control mechanisms to regulate private donations and party spending.
Uruguay is having a problem in that it has not been able to reduce structural poverty.
In addition to these challenges, Uruguay faces serious problems in terms of gender representation. Despite progress in some areas, women’s participation in politics remains insufficient. With less than 25% female representation in Parliament, Uruguay lags behind other Latin American countries.
According to a report released by UN Women earlier this year, 64% of the Uruguayan population believes there should be more representation of women in the South American nation’s parliament.
Casa points out that “Uruguay does not have a Law on Parity in Political Offices; an attempt was made to vote on it during this period, but the initiative failed.” Currently, there is a quota law that requires one-third of representation, but its enforcement is poor.
From a social perspective, Eduardo Bottinelli highlights a series of critical challenges for the next government. “Uruguay is facing a problem in that it has not been able to reduce structural poverty, in addition to the fact that there is a clear process of infantilization of poverty and an increase in the number of homeless people,” says Bottinelli.
Nearly 350,000 people, or 10% of Uruguay’s population, live below the poverty line. This situation predominantly affects the inhabitants of the northern departments of the country and those living on the outskirts of Montevideo. According to a UN report, 44% of this vulnerable population are children and adolescents.
Finally, public security and drug trafficking represent significant challenges for Uruguay. In recent decades, the country has seen a considerable expansion of drug trafficking, which has contributed to an increase in crime and violence rates. Bottinelli concludes that “without a doubt, some of the most important problems and challenges for the next government are linked to the problem of public security in general terms and, in particular, those linked to drug trafficking.”
According to the Global Study on Homicides carried out by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Uruguay experienced a worrying increase in the homicide rate. Between 2021 and 2022, this crime grew by 25.8%, placing the country at 11.2 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants.
In 2021, Uruguay ranked sixth on the list of Latin American countries with the highest number of homicides per capita, led by Colombia (25.7 per 100,000 inhabitants), followed by Brazil (21.3), Venezuela (19.3), Guyana (16.3), Ecuador (14) and Uruguay (8.9).
The next president of Uruguay will not only inherit a country with a political system consolidated in blocs, but also a series of social, economic and security problems that will require comprehensive and effective solutions. The ability to manage these challenges will largely determine the success of the next government and the future of the country.
Author: Lisandro Concatti
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2024-07-05 09:53:14