Focus: Taiwan’s presidential election poses challenges to US-China strategy, regardless of who wins | Reuters

Taiwan’s presidential election, which will take place on January 13, will likely pose challenges to the US government, regardless of which candidate wins. The photo shows Hou Youyi, candidate for the main opposition party, the Kuomintang. Photographed in New Taipei City on the 5th (2024 Reuters/Ann Wang)

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Taiwan’s presidential election on the 13th will likely pose challenges to the U.S. government, regardless of which candidate wins. If the ruling party wins, relations with China will certainly become even more tense, while if the opposition party wins, difficult questions could arise about Taiwan’s defense policy.

The presidential and legislative elections on the 13th will be the first wild card of the year for the Biden administration, which aims to stabilize relations with China.

U.S. officials are careful not to appear to be interfering in Taiwan’s elections.

In December, Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns said: “What we hope very much is that the elections will be free from intimidation, coercion and interference from all sides. The United States is not involved in this election and has no intention of doing so.” “No,” he said.

The United States has had bitter experiences with this type of “indifference” attitude in the past. Before Taiwan’s 2012 presidential election, the Obama administration raised eyebrows at a senior U.S. government official expressing doubts that presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen would be unable to maintain stable relations with China .

Although Tsai of the Democratic Progressive Party lost that year, she won the presidential election in 2016 and was re-elected in 2020, leading to increased tensions with China.

President Tsai cannot run again due to term limits, but China has labeled the Democratic Progressive Party candidate, Vice President Lai Chingde, a separatist, and analysts predict that China would increase military pressure if she wins.

Both the Democratic Progressive Party and the main opposition party, the Kuomintang, say they are the only ones capable of protecting the peace and have pledged to strengthen Taiwan’s defenses. Both parties argue that only Taiwan’s 23 million citizens can decide Taiwan’s future, but the Kuomintang firmly opposes Taiwan’s independence.

While the U.S. government does not support independence, there is concern within the administration that if New Taipei Mayor Hou Youyi of the Nationalist Party wins, U.S. efforts to strengthen Taiwan’s military deterrence would be undermined. Although the Kuomintang has traditionally adopted a conciliatory policy towards China, it denies being pro-China.

Douglas Pearl, who previously served as the Taipei office of the Association of the United States in Taiwan (unofficial ambassador to Taiwan), said: “(U.S.) government officials claim to be neutral, but this emerges from their general political statements towards China. The real feeling is that they support the Democratic Progressive Party, which they know, rather than the Kuomintang, which they don’t know much about.”

Perl said Taiwan is wavering on increasing defense spending, and that the Kuomintang is looking for better ways to keep the peace than military spending. This is because they believe that even if they increase military spending, they will only increase taxes and have no hope of countering China’s military might.

“Wars have broken out in Gaza and Ukraine, US capabilities have reached their limits, and there is debate about the future direction of the US. Under these circumstances, for many in the administration, it is best to maintain the status quo (on Taiwan) . Sounds desirable.”

Laura Rosenberger, president of the Virginia-based Association of Americans in Taiwan, which manages unofficial relations between the United States and Taiwan, met with both Mr. Lai and Mr. Hou during a visit to the United States last year.

A US State Department spokesperson said: “US policy on Taiwan will remain the same no matter which party is in power. We look forward to working with the person chosen by Taiwanese voters.”

Some U.S. officials fear that regardless of who wins, China will increase pressure on Taiwan militarily, economically and diplomatically.

“There will come a time when we will need diplomacy, clear channels of dialogue and a reaffirmation of the importance of peace, stability and maintaining the status quo,” a senior American official said.

A person familiar with U.S. politics said senior U.S. officials have “developed deep relationships” with each of the Taiwanese candidates. You said you underlined “the importance of continuity in key policy areas”.

The U.S. government has long emphasized that Taiwan should take its self-defense seriously, investing in affordable, mobile, and hard-to-destroy military assets to improve its ability to defend itself against Chinese military action.” adopt a strategy that will

The US Congress has strong support for Taiwan, but this support could be eroded if wealthy Taiwan suspends or withdraws its commitments to improve its self-defense capabilities, the analyst says.

The U.S. government would likely be embarrassed if the election were to create a shift in Taiwan’s new government and parliament, crippling defense policy.

Although there are concerns that the Kuomintang will not be as proactive on defense reform and spending as the Democratic Progressive Party, if the Kuomintang wins, there is a possibility that tensions in the Taiwan Strait will ease to some extent. China says tensions between China and Taiwan are the most dangerous issue in US-China relations.

Caris Templeman of the Hoover Institution at Stanford University said that while questions about the Nationalist Party’s willingness for defense cooperation are valid, opinions are clearly divided within the US government over which candidate is best for the interests of the United States. “If he becomes president, he may be able to stabilize relations with China to some extent, reduce the threat level in the short term, and buy time for Taiwan to implement defense reforms,” ​​she said.

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2024-01-09 23:05:00
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