Mr. Luu Chi Khang, Director of the Research Center of Kien Thiet Securities Company CSI, said that the stock market decreased during the weekend trading session mainly due to short-term profit-taking pressure, influenced by stress. about exchange rates.
According to Mr. Khang, it is normal for the market to adjust downward in the context that stock prices have recovered strongly since the beginning of the year and deposit interest rates are on the rise again.
CSI experts said that fluctuations in the US financial market are causing the USD to tend to strengthen, thereby putting pressure on the USD/VND exchange rate in the domestic market.
Mr. Le Quang Tri – Brokerage Director of Nhat Viet Securities Joint Stock Company – also shared the same opinion, saying that the tense exchange rate should make many investors worried and this is a necessary adjustment for the market to increase. next.
Recently, the State Bank (SBV) has made many moves, but the USD/VND exchange rate has not cooled down yet. The exchange rate is still inching up, on May 24 reaching 24,477 VND/USD (selling price at Vietcombank), only slightly lower than the record high of 25,485 VND/USD recorded on April 22.
The USD/VND exchange rate continues to be tense as the USD in the international market turns to increase in value compared to a basket of major currencies, after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is concerned about persistent and unnatural inflation. Interest rate cut news.
Theo Reuters, in the May meeting minutes, there were many hawkish tones indicating that policymakers were not confident in cutting interest rates. That pushed Treasury bonds and the dollar higher.
Recently, the State Bank of Vietnam simultaneously increased the lending interest rate through the mortgage channel of valuable papers when pumping money into the market (to 4.25%/year), as well as increasing the interest rate on bills when withdrawing money (interest rate). 4 years). The purpose is to raise interest rates in the interbank market to a higher level, thereby reducing the difference with USD interest rates in the world. The State Bank hopes to thereby reduce pressure on exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
Although still inching up, the USD/VND exchange rate is forecast to cool down in the second half of the year.
Mr. Luu Chi Khang predicted that the stock market is expected to continue to increase. In the second half of 2024, the VN-Index will rise to 1,400 points with a number of groups that may have positive developments such as industrial park real estate, oil and gas, construction materials and even banks.
During the May 24 trading session when the market dropped sharply, billions of dollars in cash flow poured into stocks. In total, more than 40 trillion VND was poured into 3 exchanges, including more than 35.5 trillion VND on HOSE. Liquidity today increased 70.8% compared to the 20-day average.
According to Mr. Tri, in the second half of this year, the VN-Index will increase to 1,300 points. Stock groups of industrial real estate, steel, technology, retail, seafood,… will be positive but it depends on the time.