In the municipal elections of Turkey, the ruling Justice and Development Party not only did not celebrate an absolute victory, but also lost the championship to the opposition Kemals, who unsuccessfully finished the presidential race last year. For the local government, Erdoğan threw both his personal reputation and nationalist forces into battle. According to experts, he sought to resolve the issue of the succession of the successor, and therefore the civilizational-geopolitical election of Turkey.
The impressive success of Kemalaka, the People’s Republican Party, is hailed as the “end of the Erdogan era”. From now on, as predicted, the main actor in the political life of Turkey may be the re-elected mayor of Istanbul, Imamoglu. The current government did everything to prevent him from running for mayor, but Erdogan’s efforts were in vain. Israeli Foreign Minister Katz made a remarkable note about the municipal elections in Turkey. “A clear signal to Erdogan, provocations against Israel are no longer working, look for another horse.”
It is noteworthy that the ruling party lost in the municipal elections in the background of Erdogan’s statement about starting an “anti-terrorist operation” in the north of Iraq and Syria and the announcement of his meeting with the President of the United States. Does this mean that the majority of the Turkish public does not support his foreign-political ambitions, or is the voting picture due to Turkey’s socio-economic difficulties – opinions may differ.
It is a fact that the president of Turkey presented the defeat of the ruling party to the international community as an “example of democracy”. Apparently, he had quite reliable information that he will not repeat last year’s success in the municipal elections. It seems that this is also the reason why Ankara has recently declared membership in the European Union as a “strategic goal”.
Of course, the municipal government does not decide the country’s foreign policy and strategic choices. According to the re-elected mayor of Istanbul, “Turkey’s diversity is its strength.” Apparently, the allusion refers to the pro-Kurdish forces, which have also had notable success. Will Erdogan accept the “open hand” of the People’s Republican Party? After losing the presidential elections last year, the People’s Democratic Party did not show any initiative to protest or dispute the voting results.
Will the ruling Justice and Development Party follow that example or will it go to confrontation in order to maintain continuity in the next presidential elections? There was an opinion that “after an impressive victory in the municipal elections, Erdoğan will either go for constitutional changes and provide a legal basis for a third term in office, or will identify a successor.” The results of the March 31 vote most likely rule out the first option.
What option will Erdogan choose to “maintain the continuity of the era”? Some commentators believe that he will try to “compensate for the political defeat with a shocking military-political success in order to ensure the consolidation of the nationalist-Islamic electorate”. But is the Israeli foreign minister’s warning a coincidence? Does Erdogan have the resources to unleash a full-scale war in the Middle East? The social support of Russian-Turkish military-geopolitical cooperation is Turkish nationalism.
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