Electricity / May started with low prices in Greece

Downward trends in prices as well as energy demand are predicted in the short term in Europe, stemming from both electricity market data and expectations for lower natural gas prices and carbon emissions. The Greek market, however, at least in the current phase, seems to be moving higher compared to April.

According to the ICIS (Independent Commodity Intelligence Services) analysis, the demand recovery remains sluggish in almost all of Europe (except the Nordic countries), while the availability of French nuclear is at a good level and the French and Spanish hydro remain above average for this time of year. These factors are putting downward pressure on prices, with a significant number of negative prices expected over the next couple of months, demonstrating that mid-efficiency gas and coal plants are out of the energy mix. At the same time, weather forecasts (based on the Copernicus system) indicate that May will see temperatures close to historical averages, although warmer temperatures can be expected in Europe in June, July and August, leading to increased demand for air conditioning and refrigeration.

On the gas side, ICIS says, a key driver will be the end of US Freeport LNG plant maintenance in May as it signals a 10% increase in flows from June, which is expected to put downward pressure in the spot price of natural gas in Europe, despite a reduction in pipeline flows in Europe due to maintenance work in Norway.

In the coal field, ICIS analysts see the prospect for the December 2024 contracts as a reduction to a range that may vary between 60 and 65 euros per tonne of CO2.

Greek market

However, May in the Greek wholesale electricity market entered with increased prices, which on average (1-8/5) today reach 68 euros per megawatt hour, compared to the closing of April at 60 euros and the corresponding eight days of the previous month at 52.4 euros .

It is characteristic that in recent days we see an average wholesale price in the domestic market close to 90 euros per megawatt hour, with an increased participation in the electricity generation mix of natural gas (40%-42%), despite the equally large potential of RES (36%-41, 5%). In the evening hours yesterday and today we had the highest prices, at 142 and 160 euros/megawatt hour respectively.

In relation to natural gas prices, the small increase recorded since April in the EU stock market price index. (TTF) and reached just over 33 euros/megawatt hour (against prices close to 25 euros in March) is maintained, with prices in the first week of May just over 30 euros. It is noted that this trend will be reflected in the current month in the wholesale prices, since, based on the operation of the domestic electricity generation, the prices of the previous month (front month) are taken into account.