The year ends with two ongoing wars and the end of the global emergency due to Covid 19
The most recent between Israel and Hamas, which began when members of this terrorist group infiltrated southern Israel from the Gaza Strip on October 7 and attacked border towns and the open-air music festival Supernova. Around 1,140 people, mostly unarmed civilians, of all ages and different nationalities, were killed on Israeli territory. From there the Israel Defense Forces took the Gaza Strip and in urban combat vowed to put an end to Hamas.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which began in February 2022 and continues with no sign of ending, has shaped much of 2023, claimed thousands of lives on both sides and caused fractures in global food and energy supply chains , with impacts on global inflation.
But there was also good news
On May 5, the World Health Organization declared the end of the international public health emergency due to the Covid-19 pandemic, declared on March 30, 2020. During the first quarters of 2023, however, the markets According to the reports of the Nations United, developed economies have returned to previous pre-pandemic conditions in their main indicators.
The year 2023 saw the emergence and consolidation of artificial intelligence in the personal and work spheres. For example, the Chat GPT chatbot, launched on November 30, 2022, reached 180.5 million active users in December this year, and the Openai website received 1.721 million visits in November 2023. Artificial intelligences will have a strong impact on human activity in the coming years.
On the American continent
Over here, on the American continent, the triumphs of the opposition candidates Bernardo Arévalo in Guatemala and Javier Milei in Argentina confirm the trend of democratic alternation on the continent. An excellent sign.
From 2018 until the November elections in Argentina, 21 presidential elections were held in Latin America, with opposition candidates winning (with the exception of Paraguay). And in the USA the opposition candidate also won. A clear demonstration of democratic alternation, marred only by three countries with elections considered uncompetitive by the international community: Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela.
With the democratic alternation consolidated, it is difficult not to be optimistic about our continent in 2024.
In 2022 (most recent data), foreign direct investment in Latin America and the Caribbean increased by 51% to $208 billion, an all-time record. In South America it grew by 73%, especially in mining and oil areas. In Central America it grew by 5% and in the Caribbean by 53%. Also in 2022, 5 American countries were in the Top20 for receiving foreign direct investment, and they were the United States (first in the world), Brazil (5), Canada (7), Mexico (11) and Chile (19).
Presidential elections will be held in 2024 in El Salvador (February), Panama (May), Mexico (June), Dominican Republic (July), Uruguay (October), United States (November) and Venezuela (December).
In Venezuela
After a relative economic calm due to the lifting of restrictions due to the pandemic, the final indicators are very negative.
The Bolívar continued to lose value against the US dollar, going from 18.13 Bs per dollar on December 30, 2022 to 39.10 Bs on December 29, 2023, an increase of 116% over the course of 2023. During that time the BCV it has lost 140 million dollars in international reserves and inflation will reach 280% this year, according to IVF calculations, the highest on the continent and in the world.
The current minimum wage in Venezuela is 130 bolivars, or 3.66 dollars, according to the Documentation and Social Analysis Center of the Venezuelan Federation of Teachers, this corresponds to only 1% of the basic family basket. It is the lowest on the continent.
Gasoline shortages continued in 2023, affecting the mobility of people and goods, despite only 62,000 barrels per day being consumed internally on average during the year. For reference, 300,000 barrels per day of gasoline were consumed domestically in 2012.
Lack of drinking water, public transportation, frequent electricity blackouts, general poverty and very low wages will continue to plague Venezuelans in 2024. It is the result of the socialist model.
The Venezuelan Observatory of Social Conflicts (OVCS) documented 4,351 protests nationwide during the first half of 2023, a 12% increase compared to the same period in 2022. Protests for Economic, Social and Cultural Rights (DESCA) they remained the epicenter of the protest. mobilizations, which represent 86% of all members.
At the International Criminal Court, between 7 and 8 November, the Appeals Chamber held a public and historic hearing to resolve an incident: the Venezuelan state’s appeal against the Pre-Trial Chamber’s previous June decision to resume the investigation into the commission of crimes against humanity in Venezuela. The investigation by the Prosecutor’s Office before the ICC began in 2018 with the aim of verifying whether police and military officials, who have harshly repressed citizens’ protests since 2014 and which have caused several hundred deaths and injuries, have committed crimes against humanity, as well as the responsibility of high representatives of Nicolás Maduro’s regime in these events. The victims, around 2,600 of the almost 9,000 registered, were represented by the lawyer Paolina Massidda, representative of the Public Defense Office for Victims of the ICC.
A trial before the International Criminal Court has two main phases: the first, in which the State is asked whether the crimes against humanity are true or not and, if so, based on the evidence, whether they were prosecuted. This is the phase that is about to end now that, probably in less than 100 days, the sentence will be issued. If confirmed, the fact remains that the ICC Prosecutor’s Office will have to investigate the Venezuelan state for crimes against humanity.
The Barbados Agreement
Five years after the discredited 2018 presidential election, President Nicolás Maduro’s government and a group of opposition parties, known as the United Platform, agreed on October 17 to begin leveling the electoral playing field ahead of the 2024 elections. agreement resumes the path of formalizing negotiations between the parties and generates some hope that the next elections can be truly competitive, verifiably fair, without political prisoners and exiles.
Previously, the United States, under General Licenses 41 and 44, issued broad authorization for transactions related to Venezuela’s oil, gas, and gold sectors. It also lifted a ban on secondary trading of some Venezuelan sovereign bonds, as well as debt issued by Petróleos de Venezuela, the state oil company. This authorization is temporary and its renewal is contingent on Venezuela respecting its commitments regarding the electoral roadmap and unduly detained persons.
The opposition primaries changed the country
The opposition primaries were the main event in Venezuela in 2023. They restored the desire for freedom to millions of Venezuelans inside and outside the country. Despite months of threats and obstacles from the ruling party, the event self-managed by the Primary Commission concluded on October 22, with a result of 2,440,045 votes counted inside and outside Venezuela, where María Corina Machado obtained 2,253. 825 votes, equal to 92.35% of the total votes.
The day after the trial, the government began to report fraud and mobilized the Prosecutor’s Office to report the organizers for alleged crimes such as criminal conspiracy, money laundering and usurpation of functions. On October 30, the Supreme Court of Justice annulled the primaries organized by the Venezuelan opposition, after admitting a complaint alleging electoral fraud.
A huge and gross mistake by the regime, which had no effect on the will of the nation. In this regard, the Academy of Political and Social Sciences stated in a statement that the primaries constitute “a civic event” in line with the Venezuelan constitution. “This is therefore not a usurpation of the CNE’s functions, nor can it be assumed that illegalities have been committed,” the letter underlines. He stated that “the actions of the Public Prosecutor and the Supreme Court of Justice represent an attack on the constitutional and legal order, on democracy itself and on the citizens who civically participated in this process”.
Desperate to obscure the result of the opposition primaries, the regime called a consultative referendum on Essequibo. The referendum asked five questions. There are three that directly relate to the rejection of the jurisdiction of the International Court of Justice to resolve the dispute, the management of Guyana on the sea pending the delimitation and creation of a new administrative entity in the region, and its incorporation into the Venezuelan map. In its experiment which took place on December 3, Chavismo tested its electoral engineering, its power to ask for spontaneous voting, its capacity for coercion and also measured the dynamics and responses of the different sectors that oppose it. And the results, although unverifiable, contrasted with the empty polling stations. There was no transmission of data or printing of minutes by the CNE. The supposed results were changed three times by the electoral branch.
The reality of today and that of the future
The truth today is the extreme weakness of the regime. Without work or speech, he has no popular support. While the opposition managed to stimulate the country by proposing that the peaceful transition should be achieved with competitive and verifiable elections without unconditionally disqualified candidates.
This is how the Venezuelan nation, the international community and a large part of the party in power understood it, which has the great opportunity to allow them, avoiding criminal violence.
Today, a social dynamic continues to develop towards the integral re-foundation of the Republic and democratic alternation in power. And it is a certainty that the Venezuelan desire for freedom, justice and prosperity has proven persistent and resistant to time.
We know that the future is not heritable, indeed, quoting Peter Drucker “The best way to predict the future is to create it”. And again the ethical dimension of that certainty: how vital it is to take responsibility and commitment in the present to create the desired future.
In 2022 we titled our year-end editorial “2023 will be a different year.” We are not wrong. The country full of hope demands freedom.
Let’s make 2024 the year we reconquer full democracy.
Let’s do it!
The Patilla team
2023-12-31 21:40:03
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