The statement of Tolstoy, the deputy speaker of the Russian State Duma, that “there was never a Kazakh state, but myths are being created in Astana” is not new. Such a debate even took place in the Putin-Nazarbayev format. But, it turns out, the problem is already gaining conceptual importance. President of Kazakhstan Tokayev has formalized the issue of national identity, setting before academic institutions the task of restoring the history of Kazakh statehood. This is reported by tengrinews.
Central Asia is an ethno-civilizational “melting pot”. Until recently, Kazakhstan was considered the “hub” of the region. In a certain sense, it was due to the personality of Nursultan Nazarbayev, but apparently, Uzbekistan “did not sit idly by”. The country, which exceeds Kazakhstan in terms of population and is recognized as the cradle of Centuro-Asian civilization, achieved strategic cooperation not only with Turkey during Mirziyev’s presidency, but also with Azerbaijan. And Russian President Putin’s state visit to Tashkent is assessed as “historical in all respects”.
Russian commentator Karavaev believes that Moscow “bet on Baku and Tashkent”. Moreover, he emphasizes that “major projects are planned with the involvement of Tatarstan, as well as Astrakhan region”. Within the Russian Federation, Tatarstan is considered as the “successor of the Golden Horde”. Kazakhstan is the “civilizational successor of the Golden Horde”, according to the claim of the President of Kazakhstan, which he tries to justify at the academic level.
Naturally, Kasim Jomart Tokaev does not solve a historiographical problem. For his country, he is trying to create a geopolitical environment that will ensure his right to make sovereign decisions. Tokayev is a professional diplomat and is considered a reformer. He is credited with the political direction of “imitating the Singaporean experience”, and this implies not only internal liberalization, but also diversification of external economic relations. Being a country rich in energy resources, Kazakhstan is Russia’s competitor. Apparently, the initiative to “fill” the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline with Kazakh oil, which Tokayev presented to Ilham Aliyev, provoked Russia’s opposition.
The problem probably also lies in his personal quality. Despite the widespread opinion that he will change the constitution and “set a life term” in office, Tokayev has firmly stated that he will not take that step and will leave after the end of his term of office. This principled position is evaluated in such a way that he said “no” to the political traditions of Central Asia, which fully correspond to the state management model of Russia, Turkey and Azerbaijan. Tokaev excluded himself from that “club”.
But how does he see the future of his country if he is geographically deprived of direct communication with another “club”? Moscow suspects that Tokayev is “selling the Kazakh lands to China and the soil to the British”. Ilham Aliyev stated that British BP “will remain in Azerbaijan for another 30 years”. Recently, British Foreign Minister, former Prime Minister Cameron was in Kazakhstan. Is it possible for BP, formally staying only in Azerbaijan, to deal with the transit of Kazakh energy carriers as well? Currently, Kazakhstan mainly exports its oil through the territory of Russia. It is also an option that China will build a pipeline, becoming a major buyer of Kazakh oil.
But in both cases, Tokaev will have to make an agreement with Moscow first. What if Moscow tries to “solve the issue” before that? The cult of Nazarbayev’s personality has, of course, been formally overcome, but the clan system has most likely been preserved. The Moscow-Astana coldness may also affect the Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement.
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