Since it takes time to develop a strain-specific vaccine during a pandemic, tailored to the specific viral strains circulating at that time, this computational model highlights the importance of having a universal vaccine available as an emergency solution, the authors conclude.
If a universal coronavirus vaccine had been available in 2020, millions of lives would have been saved – pending a strain-specific vaccine – according to new research published in the medical journal The Lancet.
In the end, it took “only” ten months for the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine to go through the entire process of development, testing, and emergency use authorization. But at that time there were already hundreds of thousands of deaths and medical costs amounted to millions of euros.
A universal coronavirus vaccine could have prevented much of that suffering, new research suggests The Lancet. Such a universal vaccine would therefore target parts of the virus common to many or all coronaviruses. It could have provided some degree of protection against various tribes.
New outbreak
“Covid-19 was the third large and serious coronavirus epidemic after SARS in 2002 and MERS in 2012,” he says Pietro Hotez from Baylor College of Medicine in Houston. «We must therefore take into account the fourth coronavirus epidemic in less than ten years. A universal vaccine is convenient and cost-effective and is a top priority if we are to move forward.”
To determine whether it is worth investing in the development and storage of a universal vaccine, the team used a mathematical model that simulated the spread of a new coronavirus, similar to Covid-19, to the entire US population. All consequences for public health (such as hospital admissions) and the economy (such as lost productivity and direct healthcare costs) were also mapped.
This shows that vaccination with a universal coronavirus vaccine, without additional measures such as the use of masks or distancing measures, resulted in cost savings, even in a scenario where the vaccine effectiveness would only be 10%. .
Lives saved, costs saved
A universal coronavirus vaccine with 10% efficacy administered to a quarter of the US population within two months of the start of the pandemic could prevent 14.6 million infections and save more than $27 billion (24, 5 billion euros) in direct medical costs.
7 million hospitalizations would be avoided and 2 million people would not die.
7 million hospitalizations would be avoided and 2 million people would not die, all for a low-efficacy vaccine used as the only intervention.
Read also
In a scenario where this universal vaccine was administered to only 10% of the American population, more than 2 billion dollars (1.8 billion euros) could still be saved in social costs (e.g. direct medical costs and lost productivity due to absenteeism). .
Important emergency solution
Since it takes time to develop a strain-specific vaccine during a pandemic, tailored to the specific viral strains circulating at that time, this computational model highlights the importance of having a universal vaccine available as an emergency solution, the authors conclude.
“Our research shows how important it is to ensure as many people in a population have some degree of immunity as quickly as possible,” he says Bruce Y. Lee, professor at the City University of New York. “Having a universal vaccine developed, stored and ready for use in a pandemic could be a game changer, even if a more targeted vaccine may be developed three or four months later.”
2024-01-15 04:00:59
#Doctors #universal #coronavirus #vaccine #save #millions #lives #epidemic