Given the worrying developments of the last few days, both in Bab el-Mandeb and in Iraq and Syria, directly involving the Americans and Iranians, the question that worries the Lebanese remains whether or not the ongoing clash on Lebanon’s southern border will expand. Many analysts are predicting difficult days ahead and the wave of concern is gaining ground.
However, for those who follow the progress of the operations closely, it is clear that despite some excesses, the conflict remains under control. The Israelis, in fact, violated the “rules of engagement” in force since 2006 by striking the heart of the southern suburbs as well as the areas outside the south of Litani, and Hezbollah responded by in turn exceeding the usual limits, therefore first striking the air control base. Meron then took over the command of the northern area of Safed, about fifteen kilometers from the border with Lebanon.
Since then, the confrontation seems to have returned to its previous limits… until the next outbreak. But according to an Arab diplomatic source who follows the issue closely, there is indeed a general will not to let the front with Lebanon widen. First of all within the Israeli command itself. Indeed, Israeli officials are divided on the issue. There are those who want to fight Hezbollah at all costs without taking into account the risks and losses that this could entail for the Israelis and those who are aware of how much a conflict with Hezbollah could cost the Israeli army. This second field is growing and the criticisms are now clearly formulated.
So, again according to the same source, to fully understand what is happening today in southern Lebanon and Gaza, we need to look at the bigger picture, on the scale of the region and the world. It is clear that the conflict that began in Gaza has now grown to the point that it is ready to redefine roles and burdens throughout the region. With more than a hundred days of fighting, in Gaza and almost everywhere in the region, at more or less low intensity, it is no longer a war that could be ended with a ceasefire agreement. According to the Israelis themselves, in response to the trauma of October 7, they are waging an existential war in Gaza, which can therefore only end with a victory that would erase the images of this “terrible day” and allow Israel to return once and for all. to once again become the strong point of the region, while, since the outbreak of this conflict, the Israelis have appeared weak and in need of all Western support to face Hamas. All previous clichés about the Arab-Israeli wars, which until this latest conflict were rapid and effective, have thus fallen by the wayside, and the Israelis want to restore them at all costs, even if the conflict were to last for years. In any case, this is what Israeli officials themselves say, announcing that 2024 will be a year of war. On the American side, according to the cited source, the deadline granted to the Israelis, which was supposed to expire in January, would have been extended until spring, but without waiting long. The Americans, explains the Arab diplomatic source, are convinced that the terrain has shown that the Israelis cannot win the war, especially if the front in Lebanon is expanded. What is needed is to ensure that they do not lose it and that the various protagonists can participate in an expanded conference similar to the one in Madrid in 1991 to redefine roles and weights in the region. It should be noted that within the framework of this conference, Israelis and Palestinians sat down for the first time at the same table to negotiate and the process that led to the Oslo agreements in 1993-1994 was started.
Today, in the midst of the battle that has lasted for more than a hundred days in Gaza, none of the protagonists have a clear vision for the “day after”, and this is why the only possibility is to think about organizing an international conference which this time will bring together Palestinians and Israelis, but also Americans and Iranians, among others. What, in the eyes of the aforementioned source, therefore prolongs the current war, is precisely the place that everyone would like to have in this conference. The Israelis would like to eliminate Hamas. But so far this movement has reserved a place for itself as one of the representatives of the Palestinians. For their part, the Iranians want to increase their own, positioning themselves as a key interlocutor against the Americans. However, again according to the aforementioned source, if the fighting stopped now, Iran would not get the hoped-for place, up to what this country considers its achievements in the framework of the resistance axis.
For all these reasons, the fighting seems destined to continue almost everywhere in the region, and constitutes, in a certain sense, violent messages that the different protagonists exchange. But in this context there should not be a big winner and a big loser, because there are too many interests at stake to take such big risks and let things get out of control.
Given the worrying developments of the last few days, both in Bab el-Mandeb and in Iraq and Syria, directly involving the Americans and Iranians, the question that worries the Lebanese remains whether or not the ongoing clash on Lebanon’s southern border will expand. Many analysts predict difficult days and the wave…
2024-01-16 22:00:15
#overflows #conflict #remains #control