Donald Trump is moving like a steamroller on his way to the Republican nomination for president in November, but early polls have revealed some vulnerabilities that could hinder his reconquest of the White House.
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The former president emerges from the primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire crowned with clear victories against Nikki Haley, the only rival still in the race. But those successes mask concerns about his drawing power among the independents and moderate Republicans he needs to win against Democratic President Joe Biden in November.
Nearly half of New Hampshire voters are registered as independents, a group that closely reflects the mood of swing states that will play a key role in the presidential election. And they voted two to one in favor of Nikki Haley, more moderate than Donald Trump.
Another warning sign for the Trumpist camp is that, according to an exit poll, a third of Republican voters in New Hampshire have given assurances that they will not support Donald Trump on November 5.
A trend underway in Iowa too. Donald Trump won easily, but according to a poll by the local newspaper Des Moines Register, almost half of Nikki Haley’s supporters would vote for Joe Biden rather than the real estate mogul.
“Many people have described Donald Trump’s result in Iowa as dominant, but I disagree,” says Kenneth Miller, a political science professor at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.
“Favourable conditions”
“He started out as the obvious leader and campaigned for two years without his main rivals saying anything untoward about him. There we have the most favorable conditions for the primaries, but in Iowa the percentage barely exceeds 50%.
In this state, Donald Trump faced two main candidates. In New Hampshire he faced only Nikki Haley after the departure of Florida governor Ron DeSantis, but there was no wave in his favor (55%).
Some observers have not failed to ask questions about Donald Trump’s ability to mobilize beyond his most fervent base.
Ron DeSantis has sided with the businessman, but believes that old-fashioned Republicans will not support him against Joe Biden.
“When people who voted for (former President Ronald) Reagan in 1976 come to me — people who have been conservatives all their lives — and say they don’t want to vote for Donald Trump again, then we have a problem,” said state.
The lack of appetite among moderate Republicans for the former president’s MAGA (“Make America Great Again”) brand has been reflected in the polls.
In addition to losing to Joe Biden in 2020, his party lost both houses of Congress during his term and suffered setbacks in the 2022 midterm elections.
Scorched earth
But Donald Trump does not seem ready to change strategy, to the delight of his more right-wing supporters who wholeheartedly applaud his speeches on the alleged economic collapse of America or on illegal immigrants who would destroy the country.
His victory speech on Tuesday was peppered with angry tirades, insults, conspiracy theories, including the unprecedented lie in US history that he had not lost the 2020 presidential election.
This is not his only challenge as he faces 91 charges and at least one trial in four could begin before November 5th.
Voters were asked whether they would consider Donald Trump worthy of the presidential office if convicted. According to exit polls, just over a third of Iowans and nearly half of New Hampshire said no.
In other words, while many people are ready to forgive him everything, there are many who are not.
“Even if he could bring 80 to 90 percent (of voters) back in line, our presidential election has been so close recently that the slightest defection within his party could be fatal,” estimates political scientist Nicholas Creel , of Georgia College and State University .
2024-01-25 02:58:17
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