The IMF on Monday revised up its global growth forecast for 2026 thanks to a boost in technological investments, but warned that the impact of AI and the resurgence of trade tensions could cause disruptions.
The growth of the world economy will remain stable over 2025, at 3.3% this year, said the International Monetary Fund, 0.2 percentage points more than expected in October.
The Fund warned in its World Economic Outlook update that “the resilience shown so far is largely due to a few sectors,” indicating vulnerability.
While the global economy appears to be “leaving the trade and tariff disruptions of 2025 behind us,” this does not mean they have had no impact, said IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas.
Rather, the challenges were offset by “tailwinds from the rise of AI and technology investment,” one journalist explained.
This was especially clear in North America and Asia, the IMF noted.
Growth in Latin America
The new outlook for Latin America is for growth of 2.2%, 0.1 percentage points less than previously forecast.
Brazil, the largest regional economy, would grow 1.6% in 2026 (-0.3 percentage points), while Mexico, the second largest regional GDP, remains unchanged at 1.5%.
In 2025, the private sector showed its capacity to adapt to face trade shocks.
Since returning to the White House last January, US President Donald Trump has imposed tariffs that will affect allies and competitors alike, shaking up markets and supply chains and triggering trade tensions.
But the Trump administration later struck tariff deals with several partners and reached a crucial temporary truce with China.
For now, global inflation is expected to drop from an estimated 4.1% in 2025 to 3.8% in 2026.
Trump’s latest threats of tariffs against eight European countries, in a fight for the Danish territory of Greenland, shook the world again.
«We see that we are in a world in which trade tensions can break out, geopolitical tensions can break out. And that is a downside risk for the global economy,” Gourinchas told AFP during an interview in Brussels.
However, the IMF said trade policy uncertainty remains much higher than in January 2025 and occasional problems could still occur, in regions such as Latin America.
The U.S. Supreme Court must also rule on the legality of Trump’s use of emergency economic powers to impose tariffs on goods from virtually all trading partners.
The high court is expected to issue a decision early this year.
The cancellation of some tariffs “would inject another dose of trade policy uncertainty into the global economy,” Gourinchas said.
Trump could use other legal powers to reimpose tariffs, creating uncertainty.
In addition to trade, the rise of AI driving the global economy carries its own risks, Gourinchas estimated.
There is the potential for a “market correction” if expectations for AI gains, productivity and profitability are not realized.
A major catalyst for recent stock market records on Wall Street has been, precisely, the bullish sentiment around artificial intelligence.
Divergence
The IMF estimates that the rebound in technology investment and spending added about 0.3 percentage points to average annualized US GDP growth in the first three quarters of 2025.
This offset the latest government shutdown at the end of the year over a budget disagreement in Congress.
Gourinchas highlighted the divergence between the United States – which is experiencing a jump in AI investment – and other advanced economies.
The IMF estimates U.S. growth at 2.4% by 2026, 0.3 percentage points higher than forecast in October.
Instead, it forecasts 1.3% growth in the euro zone.
Growth in China and India is also “relatively strong” compared to other emerging markets, Gourinchas said.
Looking ahead, he stressed the need to preserve the independence of central banks, so that they can fulfill their mandate of keeping inflation at bay.
While he did not comment on an ongoing US Justice Department investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, he noted that the US dollar’s relevance to the international monetary system means it is “even more important” that the Fed can do its job and do it well.
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