Dende projects a 2026 with stability and orderly economic management

ASSUMPTION- Development in Democracy (Dende) presented this Wednesday its report “Perspectives 2026”, in which it projects an economic scenario of moderate growth and return to fiscal order for Paraguay next year. The organization estimates an expansion of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 4.0% and a fiscal deficit of 1.5%, supported by better performance in agribusiness and the energy sector.

The document indicates that, after a 2025 marked by a strong boost in credit, a high flow of Argentine visitors and a rebound in the meat sector – with a current account deficit that would exceed 4% of GDP -, 2026 is emerging as a year of economic normalization.

For that period, Dende projects that international commodity prices will remain stable and that the United States Federal Reserve will continue with the gradual reduction of its reference rate. At the local level, it is expected that the Government will fully return to the path of fiscal order, closing the year with a deficit of 1.5% of GDP.

In terms of inflation, the report points to 3.5%, in line with the forecasts of the Central Bank of Paraguay. The exchange rate, meanwhile, would close 2026 in a range of between G. 7,300 and G. 7,500 per dollar, compared to the G. 7,100 estimated for 2025.

Dende maintains that these projections configure a panorama of stability for the Paraguayan economy, conditioned largely by the behavior of international markets and the internal management of expectations.

Political strength and social pressure

At the political level, the analysis highlights that Paraguay will enter 2026 with a robust party structure. Chartism, described by Dende as a “Highest Partisan Strength”, aims to reach 3.5 million members next year.

A global environment in full reconfiguration

The report also dedicates a section to the international context, marked by what it calls a “global reconfiguration.” It indicates that the world economy will move around 2.6% in 2025 and 2026, in a scenario influenced by the decisions of the Federal Reserve and by the caution of the markets.

On the geopolitical level, Dende highlights the strong alignment between the governments of Javier Milei and Donald Trump, while countries like Brazil maintain more distant positions, configuring a regional map with contrasting tensions and alliances.

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