Cuban population falls to less than 10 million inhabitants

SAN LUIS POTOSÍ, Mexico.- On Friday, the Cuban government admitted that the migration crisis has significantly affected Cuban demographics, bringing the population to less than 10 million.

According to Juan Carlos Alfonso, first deputy head of the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI), the “calculation” took into account the unprecedented migration crisis of the last three years, as well as deaths.

According to the data provided by the official, considering Cubans who emigrated but have maintained their residency, by spending part of the year on the island or by having requested an extension from abroad, the figure rises to just over 10.05 million Cubans until 2023 (10,055,968 people).

Furthermore, if we look at the contraction in the number of births and the continued movement of people abroad since the last months of 2023, Cuba’s population is currently less than 10 million inhabitants.

This number represents a 10.1% drop compared to the number of residents in 2020 and is similar to what there was in Cuba in 1985, the official warned. The trend indicates that the population will continue to decline.

Cuba’s population in 2024 is much lower than the 11.1 million in 2021, according to the first figures offered since the census of that year.

Who emigrates?

Alfonso Fraga acknowledged that the population between the ages of 15 and 59 is the one that emigrates the most. This group decreased “by more than 800,000 people, reaching 59.5%. Consequently, although they also decreased in absolute terms, proportionally their weight in the population structure is increasing for those aged 0-14 (16.1%) and 60 years and older (24.4%).

According to official figures, there are just over 1.2 million Cubans “outside the country” since 2021 and 75% are no longer residents on the Island.

The largest decreases were recorded in Havana, Cienfuegos and Mayabeque; the smallest in Granma, Guantánamo and Santiago de Cuba, he said. “In general, the provinces and municipalities that are decreasing the most are those in the central-western region.”

“Specifically, for 2023 and the estimated 10,055,968 inhabitants, there are 304,717 fewer women of childbearing age (15-49 years), of which more than 70% are in more reproductive ages (15-39 years),” he said.

This reality, he explained, will have an impact on the continued decline in the number of births recorded in recent years, which in 2024 should be below 80,000, the lowest figure since 1959.

This demographic situation, consequently, results in an aging economy, “characterized by the high cost, for society and the family, of attention and care for the growing elderly population, increasing the cost of social programs with emphasis on social security and assistance and a smaller base for the renewal of the labor resources of the country and its territories.”