A magazine study Journal of comparative economics published in March 2023 concludes that crimes committed by Muslim immigrants fall by 11% during Ramadan. The authors, Carlo Birkholz, from the University of Mannheim, in Germany; and David Gomtsyan, from the University of Clermont Auvergne, in France, are based on data from the Swiss Police between 2009 and 2020.
They also consider that the reduction is due, above all, to changes in the beliefs of immigrants, without noticing the influence of the loss of strength due to fasting. They give as an example the criminal activity of these immigrants during Ramadan 2020, which took place in May. At that time, The reduction in crime was studied to determine what role the decrease in physical capacity played. Considering that criminal offenses require significant effort and energy to implement, larger decreases should be observed at the end of Ramadan, when there is more exhaustion from continuous fasting.
However, it happens exactly the other way around: the reduction in the crime rate begins the previous month. Eid al-Fitr, The festival of the end of the fast is the day with the lowest crime rate (a drop of almost 4%). During the following month the crime rates rise progressively until reaching the previous figures again. They affirm that “there is a return to the natural behavior of individuals.”
Switzerland is the country chosen by analysts to study its crime rates because it welcomes a large number of immigrants from various countries. According to the Swiss Federal Statistical Office (FSO), People born outside Switzerland represented around 30% of the inhabitants in 2017. 5% were Muslim immigrants. Of the countries with a high Muslim population, Kosovo is the one with the largest community.
In total 88,715 inhabitants, 1% of the total Swiss population. Türkiye followed with 80,655 inhabitants. Well then, Among those born in Switzerland the daily average of crimes committed during the Ramadan period is 256. Among those born in Kosovo it is 17, in Algeria 14 and in Turkey 10. Among those born in foreign non-Muslim countries with a large presence in Switzerland, higher numbers are recorded. Those born in Romania reached an average of 20; and those originating from Portugal 17.7.
The researchers even studied the weather to rule out elements external to Ramadan itself. in reducing crimes by 11%. They took into account factors such as rain, since the propensity to commit crimes is lower when it rains. However, the Muslim month of fasting and prayer coincided with summer in most of those years, so that could not be the reason.
The scientific article also makes clear the authors’ bias, literally stating that “the greater prominence of Muslims leads to more polarized electoral results.” This phenomenon is documented in German municipalities with mosques. Although they recognize that “One of the main concerns in host countries that could cause such negative sentiment may be criminal activity by immigrants.”
Birkholz and Gomtsyan conclude the study: “The main explanation (for the phenomenon) is changes in beliefs driven by intensive practice of religion.” Something they consider “important for the public debate about Muslim immigrants, their religious beliefs and practices in Western countries.”