January 10, 2024 at 05:02 Update: 2 hours ago
The KNMI has issued code yellow very often lately, NU.nl readers write regularly on our response platform NUjij. But is it correct? And do “all those warnings” make us take them less and less seriously?
In short
- Last autumn, readers wrote thousands of times in the comments under the NU.nl weather reports that the KNMI issues the code yellow “more and more” or “too often”, but according to the meteorological institute there is no increasing trend.
- The professors note that people can often mitigate the recurring threat of code yellow, including through vague instructions and through their own experiences.
For years, the KNMI has issued weather warnings when the roads are slippery, the perceived temperature is dangerously low and, of course, when it is about to rain. Since 2010, the meteorological institute has been doing this not only at the national level, but also at the provincial level.
KNMI climate expert Peter Siegmund gets straight to the point when NU.nl calls him about our readers’ suspicions about an increase in the number of code yellow warnings. He has seen “no upward trend” in the past four years.
The number fluctuates slightly. “In 2020 the yellow code was issued 169 times, the following year 220 times”, she summarizes. “In 2022 it was 189 times and last year it was 203 times,” she says.
He has a comment about it. “If the code yellow is issued at the same time, for example for fog and slippery conditions, immediately count twice.” This does not mean that last year we were stuck with the yellow code for more than two hundred days.
Siegmund himself thinks that’s a pretty large number. “He surprised me. But based on these data we cannot say that it is increasing.”
What do the color codes mean anymore?
- Yellow code: possible risk of dangerous weather conditions, pay attention
- Orange code: high probability of hazardous weather conditions, be prepared
- Road code: Weather alert for extreme weather conditions with great impact
Your experiences determine your behavior
But apparently many NU.nl readers think so. Code yellow, code yellow and more code yellow. If there are no others, but it seems like a lot of warnings, do these warnings still have the desired effect?
We spoke to two professors who actually have their doubts about this. “The disadvantage of code yellow is that it is sometimes quite abstract,” psychology professor Paul van Lange of the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam told NU.nl. “Like Tuesday morning with the wind chill of -15 degrees, then you think: aren’t we cold more often?” It doesn’t seem as urgent as a code orange or red, which people are more likely to have a picture of.
It’s not immediately clear whether anything is actually happening
Furthermore, with code yellow it is not immediately clear whether “something is really happening”. “If you wake up in the morning and hear about code yellow, but you see the sun shining and people cycling and walking, then you are guided by the information you have. And that is that most people don’t care. Then you don’t neither do you,” Van Lange says. “This shows how powerful the power of what others think and do is.”
Furthermore, your experience also matters, says health psychology professor Arie Dijkstra from the University of Groningen. “In many cases, these weather codes are not relevant to anyone. Where you are, it’s not slippery or there’s no storm. Then people start thinking: oh, it’s not that bad.” If this happens more often, you may start to take this weather warning a little less seriously.
“The meaning of the code yellow is ‘caution. There may be a risk of dangerous weather conditions'”, the KNMI responds to these experts. “These are weather situations that often occur in the Netherlands and it is advisable to pay attention, especially when travelling. The certainty is at least 60%.”
KNMI polls
The KNMI evaluates with flash surveys what effect the number of weather warnings has on the Dutch. This only happens after code orange and red alerts, because they have the greatest impact. The meteorological institute cannot therefore say how people’s behavior is affected by the code yellow.
Better measurement systems in the future
Should the KNMI issue code yellow warnings less often? Fix the system and raise the bar? “We would actually like to issue codes only if really necessary,” says Professor Dijkstra.
“Look at people’s needs. So they find it important to be as specific as possible. That way you hit the mark as often as possible.” But this is a vision of the future, she admits, when measurement systems are better developed.
The KNMI says it will work to refine weather warnings in the coming years. “It is part of the Early Warning Centre, a so-called national warning advice centre,” says a spokesperson. “The focus is not only on public warnings, but above all on products for professional users such as security regions and water authorities.”
For now it is important that the meteorological institute states as specifically as possible what the (un)desired behavior is for each color, says Dijkstra. “No matter how obvious it is, people also need to be reminded of their responsibilities and assessments. It remains a service that the KNMI offers.”
2024-01-10 04:02:25
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