Chavismo faces the most difficult elections in 25 years

“Until the end!” shouts the opposition. “Victory by a landslide!” respond the supporters of President Nicolás Maduro. Under international pressure, Venezuela is going to the polls today to elect a president, mired in an atmosphere of tension and uncertainty.

The 61-year-old president faces the most difficult elections in 25 years of Chavismo, 11 under his command. He claims that his victory guarantees peace in the country and that an eventual arrival of the opposition to power could end in a “bloodbath,” a statement that set off alarm bells in the region.

Most polls are against him and favor Edmundo González Urrutia, representative of opposition leader María Corina Machado, who was unable to run as a candidate after being disqualified from political office.

Along with her, the 74-year-old diplomat promises “change,” “reconciliation” and the return of millions of migrants who fled the Venezuelan crisis.

There are 10 candidates in total: Maduro, who is seeking a third consecutive six-year term, González and eight other minority candidates.

González Urrutia was an unknown until he was anointed by the charismatic Machado and now appears as the favorite in most polls after a crisis that led to an 80% reduction in gross domestic product (GDP) in a decade, years of hyperinflation and a partial dollarization of the economy.

Chavismo maintains that these polls are “fabricated” in order to justify an allegation of fraud.

Around 21 million of the 30 million Venezuelans are registered as voters, although it is estimated that only 17 million who remain in Venezuela will be eligible to vote.

According to sources close to the process, turnout is key. According to analysts, Chavismo is betting on a low turnout since its 30% popularity ceiling could give it victory, while the opposition needs the opposite: more votes to dilute the ruling party’s strength.

Maduro closed his campaign on Thursday with a massive rally on Caracas’ iconic Bolívar Avenue, after plastering the country with his face on posters, murals and giant billboards.

González and the opposition, who focused their campaign on social media due to the lack of resources and, in many cases, the climate of censorship and self-censorship in traditional media, overflowed another avenue in Caracas in their last pre-election rally.

Despite two terms in power, Maduro talks of “transformations” and blames US sanctions against Venezuela for the country’s ills. Gonzalez and Machado advocate a market economy after decades of state control.

FROM SIMON BOLIVAR TO CHAVISMO

Simón Bolívar, known as the Liberator, is Venezuela’s greatest hero. A politician and military strategist, he is considered the architect of the independence of several Spanish colonies at the beginning of the 19th century, which today make up Venezuela, Colombia, Panama, Ecuador and Peru. He was always revered as the father of the country, but under Chavismo, the use of his figure was elevated even further.

Hugo Chávez, a charismatic military man who led a failed coup in 1992, was elected president in 1999. With a very high popularity, supported by numerous social programs for health care and education, he changed the entire structure of the State. His opponents criticized his omnipresence, poor management of the economy and abuse of resources. He died in 2013 from cancer and was succeeded as president by Nicolás Maduro.

Faced with a serious political, economic and humanitarian crisis that has forced the exodus of some 7 million of its 30 million inhabitants, Maduro has governed with the support of the Armed Forces and the state security apparatus.