Can SYRIZA reach 20%?

Pollsters are talking about abstention – a record in the post-colonial years, estimating that the participation rate in the June 9 European elections may not even reach 50%.

In particular, as Thomas Gerakis, managing director of Marc, stated on ERT’s First Program, “we will probably have the largest recorded abstention in elections, whether in parliamentary or European elections. In other words, there is a risk that participation will not exceed 50% at the moment.”

“The participation rate may move below 50%”

“My answer is disturbing. And I say this because in the recent parliamentary elections we had a turnout of about 52% or so. And we had a similar participation in the European elections, where they were not held together with the self-governing ones”, he explained.

He noted, however, that “at this moment, this condition does not apply. We have the European elections taking place on their own, that is, without the motivation of going to vote for my friend, my neighbor, for municipal council, for mayor. And they also take place a few months after the parliamentary elections, without any extremely substantial stakes appearing.”

Speaking about the problems of the citizens and how they see Europe, Mr. Gerakis emphasized that “they feel awe in front of the big problems. They feel small, that is, in terms of influencing the issues concerning Europe”.

He observed, moreover, that “we see the parties and the campaigns of the parties, especially the opposition, being done in terms of parliamentary or national elections. And we see the government using a phrase that the prime minister mentioned, picking up the gauntlet and talking about stability. I consider European issues to be secondary” in these European elections, as he said.

“I do not rule out the possibility that SYRIZA will reach 20%”

Asked about the electoral performance of the parties, Thomas Gerakis said that “at the moment, if we look at the results of all the surveys, New Democracy is recorded above 30, that is, it will write 3 ahead. That’s what the polls tell us. I would tell you from a range of 30 to 35%.”

And he added: “Approximately the same for SYRIZA, i.e. from 13, 14 to even 17 or even over 17%.” PASOK from 10.3 to 14, the Greek solution from 6.7 to 10, the KKE from 6.5 to 9.5″.

As for whether the percentage of 20% for SYRIZA is possible, something that Stefanos Kasselakis has set as a goal, Mr. Gerakis did not rule it out: “I have it within the possibility. I am not the one who would rule it out, seeing also the time series, where recently SYRIZA has an upward trend”.

And he explained that “we have never counted SYRIZA or, better to say, Mr. Kasselakis in a ballot box. It is measured in the polls, but it has not been measured at the ballot box. So in this sense, it has a perhaps bigger question mark than the performance of all the other parties. And SYRIZA is a party, which is changing its voter base a bit and, however it changes it, it has a voter base with a lower average age than the other parties and less loyal than the other parties. There’s a question mark there. At the moment, however, I believe that the ballot boxes are empty and one cannot exclude anything”.

“The percentage of undecideds will be in double digits”

Finally, he estimated that the percentage of voters who will decide over the ballot box, at the last moment, will be in double digits.

“The rate will be double-digit. And we see in all polls that the percentage of undecideds is in double digits. And also there is the issue of abstinence. That is, if the abstinence is proportional, more or less these results we see in the polls, will be. If it is not proportionate, we will have differences”.