Brexit has so far cost Britain £140 billion and, according to analysis by experts at Cambridge Econometrics, by the middle of the next decade that figure could rise to £311 billion.
Economists and analysts at Cambridge Econometrics tasked Sadiq Khan, the Labor mayor of London, with modeling how the UK economy would function if it were still in the European Union. They then compared this data with data published by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) in March 2023 and with forecasts based on this data, although these forecasts were revised downwards last November.
Fewer jobs, fewer investments and exports
The report’s key findings are lower growth, lower employment, a strong negative impact on investment, imports falling more than exports and a widening gap between London and the rest of the UK. The report analyzed gross value added, which is a measure of the value added by an area through the production of goods and the provision of services. According to Cambridge Econometrics, gross value added in the UK amounted to £2,207 billion in 2023, and in 2035 it will amount to £2,771 billion. But, according to analysts’ calculations, without Brexit it would amount to £2,347 billion in 2023 and £3,082 billion in 2035. This means that in 2023 gross value added would have been 6% higher. lower than it would be without Brexit, and in 2035 it will be 10.1%. inferior. The authors also claim that by 2035 Britain will have 3 million fewer jobs, 32%. lower investments, by 5%. exports down by 16%. imports lower than they would have been if it had not left the EU.
Improve trade agreements with European neighbors
As they pointed out, in the model they tried to “isolate and subtract” the effect of Brexit from other events that affected the economy, such as the Covid-19 pandemic or Russian aggression against Ukraine. Khan recalled these calculations in his speech on Thursday evening, in which he called for strengthening relations with the EU.
“The cost of the Brexit crisis can only be resolved if we take a mature approach and are open to improving our trade agreements with our European neighbours,” he said.
Read also: The former head of the central bank on the effects of Brexit. “We said she would go like this”
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2024-01-12 09:22:16
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