Bloomberg: Ukraine believes Russia can break through defenses by summer

Bloomberg reports that Ukraine is considering with concern the possibility of Russia intensifying its military operations and overcoming Ukrainian defenses by the summer. This fear is heightened by the potential for ammunition shortages if Ukraine’s allies fail to increase supplies. The outlook on the progress of the conflict, according to Kiev’s assessments, is becoming progressively more pessimistic.

Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Alexander Syrsky today highlighted how tactical errors by field commanders further complicated the situation in Avdiivka, leading him to deploy reinforcements and additional ammunition to consolidate defensive positions.

In recent times, growing pessimism among Ukraine and its allies has been fueled by the fall of Avdiivka and some nearby areas, triggering alarm over the potential vulnerability of Ukrainian defenses.

A European official highlights how the recent losses should serve as a warning to Ukraine’s allies, citing analyst Michael Kofman, an expert on Russia and Ukraine at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, who warns that Ukraine could start recording significant defeats already during the current year.

According to Ukrainian intelligence assessments, Russian President Vladimir Putin has not given up on his initial goal of occupying key cities, including Kiev and Odessa. A potential takeover of Odessa by Russian troops would threaten Ukrainian grain export routes across the Black Sea and ease access to Moldova, where the breakaway region of Transnistria has recently sought political support from Moscow.

The Russian military strategy, based on the progress of the ongoing campaign, could oscillate between the continuation of a gradual and targeted offensive or the accumulation of resources for a decisive attack during the summer, as indicated by a source close to the Ukrainian leadership .

In his last speech to the Federal Assembly, Putin reiterated Russia’s determination to pursue the objectives set at the beginning of the conflict.

NATO troops in Ukraine and the risk of nuclear war

The New York Times reports that in his annual Union speech, Putin raised concerns about military assistance provided by Western countries to Ukraine, which includes attacks on Russian territory and ongoing discussions about the possibility of deploying NATO forces to Ukraine . He emphasized that Western leaders must understand how their actions and statements could trigger a nuclear conflict, putting the very existence of global civilization at risk.

Putin evoked the historical memory of past invasions suffered by Russia, drawing direct comparisons with the campaigns of Hitler and Napoleon, warning that the consequences for anyone considering intervention in Russian territory would be incomparably more severe today.

During the conflict in Ukraine, which began two years ago, Putin repeatedly insinuated the possibility of resorting to nuclear weapons, although he has recently moderated such statements. However, in his latest speech, he renewed these threats, while underlining Russia’s willingness to resume arms control talks with the United States, provided they include a discussion of the conflict in Ukraine.

“Russia is open to dialogue with the United States on issues of strategic stability,” Putin said, stressing that any discussion on global security issues, including Ukraine, should be treated in a comprehensive and inclusive manner, reflecting on the crucial importance of these issues for global security and stability.