Beware! Heavy Rain Still Potential to Occur Until July 8

JAKARTA – Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics Council (BMKG) issue an early warning Rain moderate to heavy intensity still has the potential to hit several areas in Indonesia from 2 to 8 July 2024. Although, currently, Indonesia is still in the dry season.

“This condition is a reminder that the weather in this country is very dynamic, thus reminding the public to remain alert to weather changes that can change quickly,” wrote BMKG in its official statement, Tuesday (2/7/2024).

BMKG analysis and monitoring shows that in the past few days there has been heavy to very heavy rain (above 100 mm) as observed on June 26, 2024 in Bovel Digoel, South Papua (119.5 mm) and Sarmi, Papua (111.0 mm), June 21, 2024 in Pekanbaru, Riau (111.7 mm) and Pontianak, West Kalimantan (107.6 mm), June 20, 2024 in Pangkal Pinang, Bangka Belitung Islands (103.7 mm), and June 25, 2024 in Central Maluku, Maluku (103.4 mm).

Meanwhile, the Medden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is in phase 3 (Indian Ocean) which contributes to the formation of rain clouds in the Indonesian region. Furthermore, the activity of the Equatorial Rossby atmospheric wave is monitored actively in Sumatra, Kalimantan, Java, NTB, NTT, Gorontalo, Central Sulawesi, South Sulawesi, Southeast Sulawesi, Maluku, and South Papua.

“Then, Kelvin waves were observed in Lampung, Java, Bali, NTB, NTT, South Sulawesi, Southeast Sulawesi, and Maluku. These factors support the potential for rain cloud growth in these areas,” he explained.

Furthermore, BMKG detected a cyclonic circulation monitored in the West Makassar Strait from West Sulawesi. The circulation formed a wind speed slowdown area (convergence) in South Sulawesi and in the Northern Makassar Strait, as well as a wind meeting area (confluence) in the West Flores Sea.

BMKG said that the existence of areas of wind speed slowdown (convergence), areas of wind meeting (confluence) can also increase the potential for rain cloud growth along cyclonic circulation areas, convergence, confluence.

Not only that, BMKG also detected an increase in wind speeds reaching >25 knots, monitored in the Arafura Sea, in the Banda Sea, and in the Indian Ocean Southwest of Banten to Southwest Lampung, which was able to increase wave heights in the areas around these waters.

“Dry air intrusion from BBS crosses the South Indian Ocean region of Java. This condition is capable of lifting wet water vapor in front of the intrusion boundary to become warmer and more humid, namely in the South Coast of Java,” he explained.

BMKG also revealed that in general, the combination of these weather phenomena is predicted to cause significant weather potential in the period from 2 to 8 July 2024, in the form of the potential for moderate to heavy rain which can be accompanied by lightning and strong winds, the potential for moderate to heavy rain which can be accompanied by lightning and strong winds in the following areas:

1. Aceh,

2. North Sumatra,

3. West Sumatra,

4. Riau,

5. Riau Islands,

6. Jambi,

7. Bengkulu,

8. South Sumatra,

9. Bangka Belitung Islands,

10. Lampung,

11. Banten,

12. DKI Jakarta,

13. West Java,

14. Central Java,

15. In Yogyakarta,

16. East Java,

17. Bali,