A meeting of the Consultative Council of the Southern Gas Corridor was convened in Baku, in which the President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev participated. We are talking about the Baku-Erzrum gas pipeline that delivers Azerbaijani gas to Turkey and from there to the European market. A year ago, Azerbaijan and the European Commission signed an agreement by which Baku is obliged to increase the annual volume of gas exports to Europe to 20 billion cubic meters in 2027.
Addressing the meeting of the Council, Aliyev stated that his word is as significant as his signature and assured the participants that in the first quarter of next year gas extraction will begin in the “Azeri-Guneshli-Chiragh” oil field. According to him, we are talking about “huge reserves”. Apparently, the European Union has doubts that Azerbaijan will be able to fulfill the obligation. Aliyev made that deal by placing a bet on Turkmen gas. Since the beginning of the year, Turkmenistan suddenly broke the contract to sell three billion cubic meters of gas to Azerbaijan per year, which was implemented through Iran.
There is no prospect that Turkmenistan will change its hard position. Moreover, there is information that Ashgabad is negotiating with the Turkish side on the issue of exporting gas through the territory of Iran to Turkey and from there to Europe. Apparently, Aliyev has to create additional reserves on the spot. That is the reason why a gas extraction project is being implemented in the “Azeri-Guneshli-Chiragh” oil field. And who will modernize the Baku-Erzrum gas pipeline? In its operational state, its capacity is not enough to export 20 billion cubic meters of gas per year.
Probably, the Council convened to discuss this issue as well. Earlier, Azerbaijani sources wrote that the European Union acts “only in the role of a buyer, will pay when the Azerbaijani gas reaches the consumer, other issues should be settled by the seller.” This is certainly not a verdict. But at the end of last year, Aliyev himself hinted about disagreements, even the possibility of breaking the deal and demanding compensation in court.
It seems that the political problem is more complicated. In his speech at the council session, Aliyev said that not only the routes of the energy carriers, but also the sources of origin are “subject to diversification”. It can be assumed that he suggests to the European Union not to focus on the problem of gas reserves, so to speak, “origin”, the main thing is that the energy carriers reach Europe. Last year, Azerbaijan signed an agreement to buy one and a half billion cubic meters of gas from Gazprom.
About allied relations in 2022. According to the Russian-Azerbaijani declaration of February 22, Azerbaijan is obliged to coordinate energy programs with Russia. In this case, according to Aliyev, his signature should also be “significant” as well as his “said word” to Russia. Speaking about energy security, Aliyev addressed the problem to the “Eurasian space. In his annual message, Russian President Putin has also declared “promoting CIS-EAEU integration” as a geopolitical goal. Will Aliyev manage to remain the owner of signature and word in the range of obligations to the European Union and Russia?
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