MEXICO CITY (apro).- According to the consensus of analysts, the cut in the interest rate will be postponed by the Board of the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) according to the Citibanamex Survey of Expectations.
In May of this year, Banxico decided to maintain the target for the overnight interbank interest rate at 11%.
According to the bank’s survey, the next movement in the monetary policy rate will continue towards a cut of 25 points, but the timing of this is expected to be carried out towards August, when in previous reports they estimated it in June.
With the postponement of the cut, at the end of the year the reference rate would be 10.25 percent and not 10.00 percent as expected
Of the participants, nine still believe that the interest rate cut will occur in this month of June, in contrast, in the previous edition of the report in which 26 estimated this; Now, 22 participants foresee the cut for the third quarter of 2024; three project it in the last quarter of this year.
With the postponement of the cut, the median of the estimates projects that the interest rate at the end of 2024 will be 10.25%, an increase from the previous survey’s estimate, which placed it at 10%.
This month of June, the peso has shown volatility, after the election day on June 2, which increased due to the insistence of the government still in power to proceed with the reform initiatives, particularly that relating to the Judiciary.
The Mexican currency lost ground against the dollar, but has shown a positive recovery after the meeting of the virtual president-elect, Claudia Sheinbaum, with the Business Coordinating Council and the announcement of half of her cabinet, highlighting the election of Marcelo Ebrard as Secretary of Economy. At noon today, the national currency has traded around 18.77 pesos per dollar.
According to the analysts surveyed, the exchange rate at the end of 2024 was estimated at 18.70 pesos per dollar, when a fortnight ago they estimated it at 18 pesos. According to the report, the forecast is not encouraging, since the average increased to 19.30 pesos per dollar.
The consensus of analysts, for the month of June, foresees a general annual inflation of 4.8%. According to Banxico data, annual general inflation for the month of May was 4.69%. Analysts project that, by the end of the year, general inflation will be 4.27%.
On the other hand, according to the survey, it is estimated that there will be a growth of 2.1% in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), although this projection presents a slight decrease, compared to the estimate of 2.2% from the last fortnight.
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2024-06-25 21:08:23