The march started by the revanchist forces in Armenia from the village of Kirants on the border with Azerbaijan and completed by a rally of thousands in Yerevan the other day attracts attention from several aspects.
Publika.az reports that the head of “Telegraf” Media Group, political scientist, said these words to Axar.az Aynur Jamal He said while commenting on the ongoing processes in Armenia.
He said that the number of participants in the action led by Reverend Bagrat was more than expected by the ruling team reveals some points:
“It was soon revealed that the action was organized and financed. That is, everyone understood that this was not a march that started “suddenly” on the initiative of priest Bagrat. The fact that the marchers wear uniforms during the rain, that those who dance to gather supporters are actually professional dancers, security along the way, distribution of white shirts to the marchers, national media fully covering the position of the protesters, filling the entire news feed with news of the march are all behind the process of serious funding. and it confirmed that the political forces had stopped. All this did not affect the number of participants in the final rally.”
According to A. Jamal, Reverend Bagrat, who was inspired by this “success”, gave the government one hour to demand his resignation:
“However, within an hour, the Prime Minister of Armenia not only resigned, but did not even know how to answer the priest’s question. The behavior of the authorities, their failure to interfere with the rally, and their warning that they would prevent provocations in the strictest way, influenced the subsequent course of the proceedings. Bagrat, on the one hand, called everyone to return to their region and hold the actions in their own areas, and on the other hand, he announced that he will hold various actions in the capital from today morning. It seems that they will again use Nikol Pashinyan’s 2018 tactics of blocking roads and paralyzing traffic. The current opposition has already tried this several times and failed.”
As for the quick dispersal of the rally and the emptying of the square, Aynur Jamal stressed that the reason for this is due to the lack of perspective:
“The forces behind Reverend Bagrat well understand that if the rally continues, the outcome of the process initiated by Sagatelya last year will be experienced. Sagatelyan also emerged as a “different force” and held continuous actions. As a result, their numbers at each rally dwindled to a few hundred at the last rally, and the resistance collapsed. Now that the political forces behind Reverend Bagrat also knew that the result would be the same, they stopped the action and raised the issue of impeachment. Reverend Bagrat met with the head of the “Armenia” bloc Robert Kocharyan the other day and wants to “resign” Pashinyan, who “does not resign”.
According to the political scientist, the Armenian opposition has tested this “experience” as well:
“Actually, Reverend Bagrat’s call to start the impeachment of Pashinyan and the alleged desire to continue the street struggle at the legal level is a compensation for the fact that it cannot achieve results. The point is that the impeachment attempt was tested by the Armenian political opposition last year. Was it a result? Of course not. Because there are 107 deputies in the Armenian parliament, 71 of them were elected from the Civil Contract Party of Nikol Pashinyan, 29 deputies of the “Armenia” bloc (Kocharyan), and 7 deputies of the “Sharafim var” bloc (Serj Sargsyan). Even one deputy of “Sharafim var” bloc has resigned and is working independently, currently this bloc is represented by 6 deputies.
In other words, the opposition has only 35 mandates against the ruling 71 deputies. Nikol Pashinyan’s party did not build a coalition so that it would be possible to achieve something through some negotiations. Pashinyan’s “Civil Agreement” faction is in power alone and has twice the mandate of all opposition deputies. For impeachment, the vote of at least 2/3 of the parliament is needed. How will the opposition get so many votes?”
According to the political scientist, it cannot be ruled out that there is actually a hidden game going on in Armenia:
“Pashinyan is overly confident and seems to be in control of the process. It is even possible that this game was agreed upon and that these “objections” were misused in the negotiations with Azerbaijan. Keep in mind that today in Almaty there will be a meeting of the heads of foreign affairs of Azerbaijan and Armenia, and serious discussions and some significant progress are expected. From this point of view, this action on May 9, and then the reactivation of the fruitless impeachment issue, which was “tested” by the opposition in September 2023, could be a game set up to “strengthen Pashinyan’s hand” in the negotiations with Azerbaijan.
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