If the latest incident “is intended to warn Iran that Tel Aviv has the ability to attack inside the country” as an anonymous Israeli source shared with the Washington Post, Tehran certainly will not ignore the message. According to many analysts, Iranian officials have felt the need to “retaliate” in proportion to not losing credibility with regional allies and creating the impression that their policy of deterring Israel has declined. weak.
A few hours before the suspected attack carried out by Israel, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian warned that Tehran would “respond immediately and at the maximum level” if Tel Aviv made a “new aggressive move”. However, until now, well-informed sources assert that the Iranians have no temporary plans to retaliate against Israel.
It is a notable fact that the tacit rules of confrontation, long existing between Iran and Israel in the conflict that initially took place through proxy forces and are now more direct than ever, have been destroyed since fighting between Israel and the Tehran-backed Hamas Islamic Movement broke out in the Gaza Strip on October 7 last year.
Over the past six months, an unprecedented conflict in the Gaza Strip, in terms of its violence and duration, has claimed the lives of more than 34,000 Palestinians and injured dozens of other victims. In the Israel-Lebanon border area, another conflict broke the usual rules, as the exchange of fire between Israeli troops and Hezbollah, another armed group backed by Iran, has increased since September 8. October 2023 and is happening every day, causing tens of thousands of residents on both sides of the border to evacuate.
When the boundary of mutual reserve and restraint has been crossed, international public opinion is increasingly concerned that the Middle East “furnace” will burn fiercely.
Analysts point out that, politically, it is difficult to see how Israel’s “limited” response to Iran like the April 19 attack would benefit Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. For a statesman who has long viewed Iran and its nuclear program as a serious threat to the Jewish state, such action in this context would be seen as a sign of boldness. bold and decisive, contrary to Mr. Netanyahu’s wishes.
Israeli Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, an ally in Mr. Netanyahu’s far-right coalition, wrote only one word “weak” in a brief message posted on social network X on April 19.
Although on the Iranian side, initial statements showed that they seemed to consider what had just happened not serious enough to respond. However, in a similar tense context last weekend, the country launched more than 300 missiles and UAVs toward Israel.
There is currently no guarantee that both Israel and Iran will falter and not “play with fire” because of their own calculations.