Angle: China’s total population will decline for second consecutive year due to economic uncertainty and rapid increase in deaths after zero coronavirus | Reuters

At the end of 2023, which will be announced on January 17, China’s total population will likely decline for the second consecutive year. The photo shows a family with their children in Shenzhen. Photographed in April last year (2024 Reuters/David Kirton)

HONG KONG (Reuters) – China’s total population at the end of 2023, announced on the 17th, is likely to decline for the second consecutive year. This is due to the sharp increase in coronavirus-related deaths after the “zero coronavirus” policy, designed to completely prevent the spread of the new coronavirus, was suddenly abolished in December 2022. Another driving factor is the continued decline in the birth rate due to the lack of bright prospects for the economic situation.

A shrinking population means fewer workers and fewer consumers, potentially exacerbating concerns about the growth prospects of the world’s second-largest economy. For local governments with heavy debts, the burden of providing elderly care and pension benefits will increase.

China’s birth rate has been declining since 2016. Demographers predict that the number of births in 2023 will be lower than the previous year’s 9.56 million. This is said to be because long-standing issues such as gender inequality and the high costs of raising children have been largely ignored.

Furthermore, in addition to the decline in the desire to have children and a record youth unemployment rate, many civil servants and employees are facing reduced wages and the real estate market, where more than a third of household wealth is invested concentrated, is in crisis and the current situation is also cited as a reason for the population decline.

As for the factors behind the declining birth rate, Shujiang Peng, a senior research fellow at the Policy Research Center at Victoria University in Melbourne, Australia, said that “the slower-than-expected pace of economic recovery and uncertainty on the future are more important than any positive effects resulting from the end of the coronavirus pandemic.” “Feelings play an important role,” he said.

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China has reported a total of 121,889 coronavirus deaths to the World Health Organization (WHO). Most of the deaths appear to have occurred after the zero-coronavirus policy was suddenly abolished. The WHO has criticized the number of coronavirus deaths as being underreported, a charge repeatedly denied by Chinese authorities.

However, the crematorium was crowded. Doctors who confirmed the patient’s death were under pressure not to classify the death as coronavirus-related. As a result, the credibility of the data provided by the Chinese authorities has further diminished.

The Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center in Seattle estimates that between December 2022 and January 2023, more Chinese aged 30 and older are expected to die from all common causes: the number of deaths was 1.87 million more than the number of deaths.

Zhou Yang, a demographer at the University of Michigan, said population data released by Chinese authorities next week may understate population declines and project an optimistic outlook to hide the extent of the coronavirus’ impact. “In the case of China, demographics also have political significance,” he said.

In 2023, President Xi Jinping said that women should pass down “stories of good family traditions” and that it is necessary to “actively promote a new culture of marriage and childbirth” and stressed that women should “actively promote a new culture of marriage and childbirth.” bound to. Local governments have announced various measures to encourage births, including tax cuts, extended maternity leave and housing subsidies.

Is the number of births the lowest since the 18th century?

The decline in the birth rate in 2023 was partly due to the fact that the marriage rate in 2022 was the lowest since 1979. Most single mothers in China do not receive child support, and the marriage rate is considered an important indicator of the birth rate.

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The number of weddings in 2023 is expected to increase compared to the previous year as weddings postponed due to the coronavirus pandemic are carried out, according to state media, but demographers say the number of weddings is expected to increase compared to the year previous, but Demographers argue that it is difficult to allay long-term concerns about population decline and aging, but I said that was not enough.

Fuxian Yi, a demographer at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, estimates that the number of births is around 8 million. According to Yi, this is the lowest level since the mid-18th century, when China’s total population was less than 200 million people, and can be considered the impact of the previous “one-child policy” and economic factors.

Penn, a senior researcher at the University of Victoria, also believes the number of births will be less than 9 million, but says it is “very possible” the number could fall below 8 million.

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Farah Master is a senior correspondent at Reuters, where she focuses on health, demographics and the environment in China. He worked for Reuters in London, Beijing and Shanghai before moving to Hong Kong in 2013. With a background spanning markets, business, sports, political and general news and economics, he was also part of a team known as Pulitzer. finalist in 2020 for investigative reporting on the Hong Kong riot. Farah speaks English, Mandarin and Spanish. You hold a Masters in Development Studies from the London School of Economics.

2024-01-11 08:51:04
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