Abdullah Ocalan seems in a position to grow to be (quite talking, in fact) the “Nelson Mandela” of the Kurds and bury the hatchet as soon as and for all, achieving a “historical compromise” with the Turkish state. As for him Fethullah Gülenhas now left this useless international, whilst there are studies that his motion has plunged into disaster. All at once, then, Recep Tayyip Erdogan he dangers being left with out the 2 “barbarians” who have been for him, now not only a sure resolution, however the superb technique to advance his interests. And that is one thing that the enjoy of the former years proves unequivocally.
It’s recalled that during 2013, the well known American mag “Time” had positioned Öcalan and Gülen within the listing of the 100 maximum influential folks on the planet – the primary in sixty fifth and the second one in 71st position. Erdogan’s “solution” got here a decade later, when he named those two – the chief of the Kurdistan Employees’ Celebration and his long-time shut best friend (if now not mentor, as some argue) – the figures who posed the best existential risk to the Turkey. Or, to be extra exact, for the Turkey he himself sought to construct, with the Justice and Construction Celebration and the social, financial and political alliances he methodically constructed from the very starting.
“Dual Towers”
The reality, in reality, is that Erdogan many times used Öcalan and Gülen because the “lever” to consolidate his energy, even within the “deep state” and conventional mechanisms. He did so by way of unleashing pogroms towards each the Kurds, with whom he has been at battle once more since 2015, finishing the peace procedure he had initiated, and the “Gulenists”, particularly within the wake of the failed coup towards him on July 15, 2016.
By contrast background, one may just argue that Öcalan and Gülen have for years been the “dual towers” within the marketing campaign of nationalist paranoia and worry unleashed by way of Erdogan and his equipment. There aren’t a couple of, in reality, who’ve tried – more often than not now not with good fortune and proof – that those two wings had evolved natural family members between them, concluding an unholy alliance whose sole goal used to be the overthrow of the AKP and its chief.
It’s price noting, in reality, that amongst them is a political candidate who for a very long time used to be certainly one of Erdogan’s maximum depended on and used to be regarded as a “hawk” and a person for the entire “grimy” jobs. That is Ahmet Davutoglu, who served as Top Minister of Turkey all the way through the crucial years of the “flip”, i.e. from 2014 to 2016, whilst previous for 5 years (2009-15) he used to be within the place of Minister of Overseas Affairs.
“The group (of the PKK) cooperates with this parallel construction (the Gulenists). We all know really well who’s speaking to whom. Now we have at our disposal paperwork that end up it,” Davutoglu had characteristically mentioned in December 2014, when the plan drawn up by way of the Sultan’s personnel used to be now smartly and in point of fact applied. For almost all of public opinion in Turkey, in fact, this sort of courting used to be “towards nature” and may just now not had been entered into. Particularly since Gülen’s motion, like himself individually, had prior to now followed excessive perspectives, not easy the removing of the specter of the PKK and its allies within the wider area in any respect prices. It used to be one thing that used to be in reality showed by way of its then chief, Cemil Bayik, responding to Davutoglu as follows: “We would have liked to revive family members with the motion, however they refused. The Gülenists adopted a nationalist, anti-Kurdish line, from which we attempted to distance them, with out succeeding. That is why we haven’t any roughly courting with them.”
However, efforts to hyperlink the “Kurdish terrorists” and the “Gulenists” by no means stopped. In addition to the power “suspects” and leaks that they’d evolved secret ties with Erdoğan and the AKP’s rival, the Kemalists, which many claimed used to be confirmed with the well known “Ergenekon scandal” (culminating within the 2013 courtroom choice ).
What is bound is that the most recent tendencies are forcing Turkey’s new established order, which is ruled by way of political Islam (or no less than a model of it), to study its techniques. In all probability, in reality, they have got already made up our minds and in finding that the brand new information favors them.
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Is a brand new trail opening in US-Turkey family members?
The relationships Erdogan’s family members with the United States have now not been just right for the reason that first second he took energy, in 2003. Evidence is the truth that he then denied the usage of bases on his nation’s territory for the invasion of Iraq. The Gülen case, then again, got here and “tied up” the battle, additional worsening the local weather between the 2 conventional allies. It’s no twist of fate, in spite of everything, that the president of Turkey “confirmed” Washington as complicit within the 2016 coup, whilst he has many times accused the American citizens of harboring a “terrorist” (Gulen lived in self-imposed exile in Pennsylvania).
Islamic preacher Fethullah Gulen at his house in Saylorsburg, Pennsylvania in 2013
It used to be, in reality, one of the most pretexts for Ankara to increase shut family members with strategic competitors of america, firstly Russia, with the contention culminating within the provide of the S-400 and the exclusion of Turkey from the F program -35. However does Gülen’s loss of life give you the alternative the 2 facets had been looking ahead to to get to the bottom of the “false impression” and normalize their family members? Despite the fact that we need to look forward to the result of the November fifth elections and the positions of the brand new president, in reality that there are already indications. Like, as an example, the “leaks” concerning the garage or project of the Russian air protection machine to a 3rd nation. Quick psalm…
Ocalan, the Kurds and the “ghost” of Palestine
Receipts can have now not been made public thus far, however few doubt that there’s a direct line connecting the 2 occasions under: at the one hand, the surprise proposal of Erdogan’s far-right best friend and Grey Wolves chief Devlet Bakhceli, which left open the potential for amnesty and his liberate Abdullah Ocalan in alternate for a peace settlement and the laying down of fingers by way of the PKK. And then again, the armed assault that came about precisely after 24 hours in Ankara, focused on the headquarters of certainly one of Turkey’s greatest battle industries, TUSAS, for which the PKK – or, in line with others, a “faction” – claimed accountability which disagrees with the way strive.
Abdullah Ocalan, chief of the Kurdistan Employees’ Celebration (PKK), all the way through his trial in 1999
The principle query that arises, then again, does now not worry who precisely hit the capital (with out ruling out the model of provocation by way of part of the “deep state”), however one thing else: why did Bakhtseli – who it appears has the settlement opinion of Erdoğan, who makes use of him as a hare – this chance to make a gap to the Kurds and their ancient chief, even the use of the time period “appropriate to wish”.
Analysts from Turkey, with whom “TA NEA” spoke, say that what pressured this transfer is none instead of the dramatic tendencies and violent reshuffles within the Center East. In different phrases: the potential for discovering some “powers”, comparable to the US and even Israel, who will enhance a situation that has been placed on ice for a few years, however nonetheless reasons terror in Ankara: the introduction of an impartial Kurdish state entity within the area, which may have a lot in not unusual with the Palestinian state, which exists on paper and has the golf green mild from the UN as smartly.
Despite the fact that explicit plans have now not been made recognized, the similar resources emphasize that Erdogan turns out to have selected to behave proactively, within the common sense of “smart youngsters prepare dinner sooner than they starve.” To hunt, this is, to ship a message that he’s prepared to start up tendencies within the Kurdish area himself, returning to the place he left off in 2015, blowing up negotiations and ordering army intervention at the territory of each Iraq and Syria.
However can he be depended on by way of the ones he relentlessly pursued? And the way will those that take into accounts whether or not and the right way to use the Kurdish paper react?
#Sultan #barbarians