The National Bank of Kazakhstan published the results of the next macroeconomic survey among the expert community, Liter.kz reports.
Experts maintained their expectations for the growth of the Kazakhstan economy and the price of oil for 2024-2025, while the forecasts for other parameters changed slightly.
In February, the scenario conditions for oil prices did not undergo significant changes. According to the median expectations of respondents, the price of Brent oil in 2024 will be at the level of $80.5 per barrel; expectations for 2025 and 2026 remained unchanged.
Estimates for economic growth in Kazakhstan for 2024 and 2025 were maintained at 4.5% and 5%, respectively. The forecast for 2026 has been improved – from 4.2% to 4.5%.
Analysts expect a higher inflation rate in 2024. The forecast was raised from 7.5% to 8.5%. In 2025, inflation estimates were reduced from 6.9% to 6.5%. By the end of the forecast horizon, respondents expect inflation to slow down to 5.7% with a target of 5%.
Following the change in inflation estimates, analysts’ expectations for the level of the base rate for 2024 were also revised – from 13.5% to 13.8%. The median values of base rate forecasts for 2025 and 2026 were at the level of 10.5% and 9%, respectively.
In January, the National Bank named the regions with the highest annual inflation rates. Across the country, inflation slowed in 16 regions.
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2024-03-25 21:59:26