No one said it would be easy to predict the behavior of the financial markets 12 months in advance, but the truth is that the big analytics companies failed badly in 2023 with their results. Ibex 35 forecast. Spain’s largest stock index will more than double the 10% gain that, on average, analysts expected for the year that is now coming to an end and which was characterized by very high interest rates, high inflationary tensions and conflicts in Ukraine and Middle East .
To a greater or lesser extent, and although Interest rates have peaked in both Europe and the United States, all these fronts remain open. While waiting to clarify to what extent inflation data and the rate of decline in the price of money will continue to improve, experts now expect double-digit gains for the Ibex 35, which could be in a very wide range between 10% and 20%.
The Spanish market has a great asset: the dividend yield, which would be strengthened in 2024 by new million-dollar share buybacks. Santander Asset Management and Insurance believes that the fundamentals of Ibex companies are very solvent and that the combination of dividends and share buybacks can offer investors returns of 6%. In this scenario, the company expects profits of around 10% for next year.
They are even more optimistic in Bankinter, which sees the Ibex 35 just above 11,300 points. That is, 12% above current levels. The cybersecurity and real estate sectors gain weight in the cards due to the expectation of lower interest rates. Among its main ones in the real estate sector we recommend the Spanish SOCIMI Colonial, Merlin and Lar. The latter is one of the companies in the sector with double-digit dividends.
And it goes even higher Rental 4, which sees the Ibex 35 at 11,860 points, 17% higher than today. The company claims that the Spanish stock market trades at a PER (many times earnings per share is quoted in the price per share, the more attractive the lower) of 10 times, which represents a discount of more than 20% compared to its average since 2020. And they close the virtuous circle with a forecast of an increase in the dividend yield from 4.7% in 2023 to 5.2% next year.
Risks
In any case, to get on the variable income bandwagon you will need to wear your seat belt, especially in the first part of the year. Santander Wealth Management warns that in the short term the stock market could show levels of volatility that “do not compensate” for many investors who may find a good refuge in the fixed income market, where safer options can be found.
For his part, Bankinter remembers this There may be a consolidation phase in stocks in early 2024 that will force a slow pace and adjustment. However, he believes that equity and bond valuations are reasonable and offer attractive upside potential. What all experts agree on is that Europe has greater advantages than the United States.
The reason is the strong rise in American technology stocks, which brought the Nasdaq index to the 15,000 point threshold. For his part, the The S&P 500 index is one step away from historic highswhich according to most analysts reduces the potential for revaluation of US indices to below 10% next year.
But it would be advisable to be cautious, given that some large companies, especially American ones, are warning of this there may be some curves on the road to Europe. For example, Bank of America recommends underweighting the Italian and Spanish stock markets (the best in 2023) given the expected greater weakness of banks in a context of falling interest rates.
For his part, Black rock warns that the market is exaggerating its prospects for rate cuts (four in the US and 6 to 3% in the eurozone in 2024). On the stock market, the world’s largest manager underweights Wall Street, opts for neutrality in Europe and emerging markets and bets on Japan.
2023-12-28 05:00:11
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