An American-Russian race to monopolize Libya’s wealth

Rashid Khashana – Al-Quds Al-Arabi
The race between America and Russia to win the keys to the Libyan decision has increased, coinciding with the faltering meetings between the local factions, which has made the political solution further and further away every day. The collapse of trust between political leaders led to each party clinging to the mercenaries it had, in order to provide itself and its supporters with a protection ring when necessary. This coincides with renewed talk about the possible return of violence and armed conflict. Recently, it has been observed that new shipments of weapons have arrived, by sea, to the combatants on both sides, which is a dangerous indicator that indicates the harboring of non-peaceful intentions. This applies to the forces of the National Unity Government, headed by Abdul Hamid Dabaiba, and also to the forces of retired Major General Khalifa Haftar.

Matching positions

This massive armament coincides with the political initiative, launched by the Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General, Abdullahi Batelli, reaching a dead end. Batelli called on the main parties to a five-party meeting, which includes the President of the Presidential Council, Mohamed Al-Manfi, retired Major General Khalifa Haftar, Head of the Unity Government, Al-Dabaiba, Speaker of the House of Representatives, Aguila Saleh, and Head of the Supreme Council of State, Mohamed Takala. Washington expressed, through Ambassador Richard Norland, a similarity of views between it and the UN envoy to Libya, regarding the necessity of the unity government to negotiate with the House of Representatives, the State, the Presidential Council, and the army, in order to agree on a road map for the elections, criticizing “people” who did not The ambassador reveals their identity. But he explained that they tried to force the unity government to resign, “but they failed because the Libyans do not want another wars,” stressing at the same time that all internal and external parties have become convinced that “elections are the path to stability, and that there is no military solution in Libya.” He said.

It’s very difficult

Batelli insists on the need to reach a political agreement between the Group of 5, as he called it, which is something that the Vice President of the Presidential Council, Musa Al-Koni, finds very difficult, because “it is unlikely that the opposites will agree.” Although the American discourse and the Russian discourse agree, in official statements, on the necessity of a political solution, they are unable to impose it on the ground. This explains the strong American support for the Special Representative of the Secretary-General of the United Nations Batelli, and Russia’s efforts, on the other hand, to strengthen its political, military, and economic sphere of influence in Libya.
At the forefront of the goals that Russia seeks to achieve is preserving the Wagner elements who were invited by retired Major General Haftar, during his attack on Tripoli in 2019, to support his forces. A United Nations report in 2020 said that up to 1,200 Wagner fighters were supporting Haftar in that war, but their number is not known today. The Russians were able to establish a naval military base in Benghazi (east), which could serve as a starting point for expanding Russian penetration in the southern Mediterranean and sub-Saharan African countries.

Out of control

In the same year 2019, Haftar’s forces took control of the Al-Weig base located in the Qatrun region in the far south of Libya, after it had remained a concentration point for Chadian mercenaries over the past years. The military base has fallen out of the control of the Libyan state since 2012. Haftar’s forces now control the Fezzan region (south), which has often witnessed security tensions, in addition to a general feeling of injustice and marginalization.
The Russian position differs from the American one, as the American special envoy to Libya, Norland, expressed a “match” in views between him and the UN envoy to Libya. If we know that Batelli’s critics criticize him for avoiding naming those obstructing the electoral process, represented by the House of Representatives and the Supreme Council of State, we realize that the dialogue he calls for will not resolve the knot, otherwise Aguila and Takala will reach a direct understanding without the need for United Nations supervision or guardianship. This consistency in positions appeared when discussing the nature of the government that would conduct business until the elections were held, as the Americans proposed, through Ambassador Norland, that there be an “interim technocratic government” whose sole mission would be to lead the country to free and transparent elections, because that is what no one wants. His vision in Libya is another interim government that will last for years. Norland spoke clearly, in an interview with the newspaper “Independent Arabia,” warning that the goal of some parties, which he did not name, is to overthrow the current unity government, while Washington considers its presence “important in every negotiating process.”

A plan to build a joint force

As for the other thorny file that is troubling the Libyans, it is the failure of the plan to remove foreign forces from Libya, as the head of the 5+5 Joint Military Committee for the Western Region, Ahmed Abu Shehma, attributed the failure of that plan to the disruption of the language of dialogue between the political parties, and each party’s adherence to mercenaries and political parties. Associated. In exclusive statements to the Libyan Al-Ahrar channel, Abu Shehma considered that the lack of trust between the political parties, the delay in holding elections and the unification of the government, are all elements that have thwarted the unification of the country’s institutions, most notably the military institution, and by extension, they have prevented the issue of mercenaries from being addressed.
In this context, the Libyans seek to limit violations and the armed presence of some formations along the border strip, in addition to securing the strip itself, from what is happening in Libya’s southern neighboring countries, especially Niger, Chad and Sudan, from civil wars and bloody conflicts. Abu Shehma reported that the 5+5 committee, which includes officers from the eastern and western regions, presented to the senior leadership a plan to form a joint force between the two regions, working to secure the south of the country, where state institutions have collapsed. But the political dispute between the parties prevented any support for this plan, according to Abu Shehma.

Open field for Russians

Regionally, it can be said that Libya is the first to be negatively affected by the repercussions of the war in Sudan, after Chad completely closed its borders with it. There is a fear that Sudanese elements will move into Libya, with the aim of using them as a launching pad to carry out operations inside Sudan. Sudan is considered an open field for the Russians, who have strengthened their relations with the commander of the Rapid Support Forces, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo.
As for the Libyan file, one of the prominent indicators of the growing Russian interest in it is the repeated visits of Russian Deputy Defense Minister Yunus Yevkirov to Libya, which numbered three in the past year alone. It is noteworthy that the departure (or killing) of the leader of the Russian “Wagner” security group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, did not change the agenda of Russian expansion in Libya and other sub-Saharan African countries. Prigozhin was killed in mysterious circumstances last August, after he was considered the bridgehead of the Russian incursion into Libya and the entire African continent.

From wide to wider

Despite the intensification of the war in Ukraine, Moscow appears to be proceeding with its plans to expand and expand influence in the Sahel and Sahara region. Washington does not hide its fears about the expansion of Russian interference there, which is one of the important topics that CIA Director William Burns may have discussed with Libyan leaders during his visit to Tripoli last year. It is likely that the second main issue, for which Burns came to Libya, is to submit an official request to hand over elements detained in Libya from Al-Qaeda, along with Abdullah Al-Senussi, the head of Libyan intelligence during the era of Gaddafi, and at the same time his son-in-law, on suspicion of his involvement. In the attack on the Pan Am plane that was shot down over the British village of Lockerbie, in 1988.

Divided leadership

The UN envoy to Libya, Abdullah Batili, who attended the meeting of military leaders in Sirte, announced the launch of joint work between international and local observers to monitor the implementation of the ceasefire agreement, which dates back to 2020. But the fate of the conflict will not be decided by the military committee, because its members are under orders. The political leadership that appointed them, and the leadership has been divided among itself since the 2014 elections.
It is noteworthy that Washington has not cut off communication with the Libyan parties, which was confirmed by the visit of William Burns, who visited Khalifa Haftar at his headquarters in Rajma (east), as we mentioned earlier. Observers pointed out that the Russians, in turn, have intensified their movement towards Libyan officials in recent days, despite the smoke of the raging war in Ukraine, as Russia has continued to expand in the southern Sahara throughout the past period.

Coup generals

One of the striking developments in this regard is that the forceful expulsion of France from the Sahel and Sahara region was matched by an intensification of the Russian presence in the region. Moreover, the coup generals in Niger were able to drive a wedge between the French and the Americans, by adopting different behavior with both Paris and Washington. At a time when they cut the threads of dialogue with France and forced it to evacuate its forces from their country, they received in the capital, Niamey, Victoria Nuland, the third person in the US State Department, and discussed with her all the issues related to the coup and its regional repercussions, and even allowed her to meet with the ousted President Mohamed Bazoum. This is a kind of breakthrough achieved by American diplomacy, as it did not hesitate to exploit the vacuum in that region to gradually spread there and occupy the position that France occupied in its former African colonies.

figurehead

Perhaps the most telling example of this is the Russians’ takeover of the former French colony of the Central African Republic, where nearly a thousand fighters from the Russian “Wagner” group are still stationed. According to the French newspaper Le Monde, the group has occupied at least 47 military sites in recent months. Hence the keenness of Russian President Vladimir Putin to meet with the president of this country, during the Russian-African summit, on the twenty-eighth of last July. But nothing was revealed about their visions for the future of relations between the two parties, after Prigozhin’s departure. It is most likely, as several reports confirm, that this president has become a figurehead, and that Wagner and the Russian advisors are the ones running the country.
In parallel, Russia intensified its contacts with Libyan leaders, extending invitations to them to visit Moscow. Among them is Muhammad Takala, head of the Supreme Council of State, who visited Russia and held talks with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov about the political situation in Libya and ways to get out of the current unemployment. It was reported that the two sides agreed that there is no peaceful solution to the crisis, except by holding the elections postponed since 2021. The press statement issued after the meeting did not refer to the fate of the “Wagner” group in Libya, which is a topic that was certainly addressed in a meeting of this level. It is also certain that the Russians have raised these issues in recent weeks, whether during the visit of the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Aguila Saleh, to Moscow, or on the occasion of the similar visit made by the President of the Supreme Council of State, Mohamed Takala, to Russia.

Algerian role?

Algeria is expected to play a role in helping to end the political crisis in Libya, after it received a non-permanent seat on the Security Council last Tuesday for a period of two years. Although the Algerians have not undertaken initiatives in the past to mediate between the Libyan parties, they maintain direct lines of dialogue, not only with the Libyan interior, but also with the international powers influencing this file, especially the trio of Russia, America, and France. The Algerians have shown on more than one occasion that they have red lines in Libya, whether for American intervention or the presence of Russian “Wagner” forces. President Abdelmadjid Tebboune raised a red card in the face of members of the “Wagner” organization when Haftar tried to use them in his war on Tripoli in 2019.
It remains that the compass of the two international powers active in the Libyan scene, Russia and America, is driven only by the ambitions of exploiting the strategic location of the country extending between the Mediterranean Sea and the Sahara Desert, and the natural resources it contains in its interior, not the least of which are oil, gas and precious metals.