Along with global strengthening: the dollar rate rose by 3% in the month

The dollar rate increased by 3% in the last month and is close to the rate of NIS 3.8 per dollar. This is a change in trend after the strengthening of the shekel, which reached A little less than NIS 3.6 per dollar at the end of February. The capital market predicts that the shekel will strengthen, as soon as the war in Gaza ends without another front breaking through.

Dr. Adam Reuter, counselor financial and my husband company ‘vaccinations finance‘ Says in a conversation with “Davar” that “the dollar strengthened against the euro by 2% in the last month and 1% is the tensions security,” says Reuter, “this time there is less impact on permanent issues such as stock prices abroad, and the reaction of the institutions in Israel to this. The stock market in the United States is no longer weak and there is no devaluation pressure from this direction“.

Reuter refers to the fact that a change in the exchange rates of financial assets abroad requires the institutional bodies to rebalance their investment portfolio, in order to maintain the previous mix. Since the investment portfolio of Israeli savers abroad is growing at a much faster rate than the Israeli economy, there is currently a strong connection between them and exchange rate the exchange.

Director the risks the finances Joseph franc, husband company “energ‘J Finance,” believes that there are other factors for the strengthening of the dollar. According to him, “It is a speculative wave that is somewhat supported by the strengthening of the dollar in the world, and as a result of that in the United States, estimates have increased that the interest rate will not drop soon,” says Frank. “As soon as there is an interest rate gap like there is between the dollar and the shekel, it is an incentive for weakening of the shekel. This is the basis, and there are also environmental factors such as warming in and around the Lebanese sector. We did not see massive dollar buying activity this month, but the media pumped out messages expecting the Bank of Israel to lower interest rates, which did not happen. Already today we see signs for tomorrow’s trading that there is a calm in the markets“.

Will the shekel strengthen soon?
“Not sure. The natural place of the shekel is around 3.5 and not around 3.7, and the distance from there is not related to the fair value of the shekel. This is not only my opinion, but also the opinion of the Bank of Israel. The Bank of Israel attributed the first stage of the deviation to the legal revolution and of course since October there are security reasons“.

Damage to the credit rating affects the exchange rate?
“The credit ratings have no real effect on the exchange rate. The credit risk did increase, but if the war ends, the risk will decrease. Israel shows itself very significantly in this aspect. in fitz‘ Only the rating forecast went down. after The failures yesterday It is likely that the demand for Israeli products in the defense sector will increase even more, and hi-tech is starting to recover thanks to the cyber sub-sector. As soon as the market anticipates the end of the fighting in Gaza and no outbreak of fighting in Lebanon, there will be a significant strengthening of the shekel.”