After months of war interspersed with negotiations, it seems that bringing the views of Israel and Hamas closer together in order to achieve tangible progress in the indirect talks, and stop the tragedy in Gaza, has become something difficult to achieve.
A report by the American newspaper “The Wall Street Journal” monitored the most prominent reasons that hinder reaching an agreement on a truce, even a temporary one, in Gaza, which would contribute to resolving the humanitarian catastrophe befalling the Strip and allow the exchange of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners.
Mediators in recent talks in Qatar said Israeli negotiators were seeking not only the release of dozens of hostages taken on October 7, but also the freedom to resume the military campaign to crush Hamas “once and for all” after the end of the ceasefire. “Temporary”.
In contrast, Hamas is mainly pushing for a permanent ceasefire and finding ways to remain influential in Gaza after the war, even if it is not ruling the Strip.
It seems that bridging the gap between the goals of Israel and Hamas has become an urgent priority for the US administration, which is mediating the talks with Qatar and Egypt.
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken will travel to the Middle East this week, stopping in Saudi Arabia on Wednesday and then heading to Egypt, hoping to make a coordinated push to reach a ceasefire agreement.
The mediators described the talks as the last opportunity to secure a truce, to avoid Israel’s imminent plans to launch a ground attack on Hamas’s last stronghold in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Tuesday that he had made it clear to US President Joe Biden that even the agreement would not deter him from entering Rafah on the border. Egyptian Priya.
Netanyahu said before the Knesset: “The goals of the war are, in brief, to eliminate Hamas’ military and governance capabilities, release all hostages, and ensure that Gaza does not again pose a threat to Israel, and this requires eliminating the remaining brigades in Rafah.”
According to former Israeli hostage negotiator Gershon Baskin, Israel is reluctant to make any concessions that could be seen as capitulation to Hamas.
He added to the Wall Street Journal: “Israel knows that it has lost entry into these negotiations. Any agreement reached is a victory for Hamas, and the goal is to reduce this victory as much as possible.”
Israel and Hamas are discussing a six-week ceasefire under which 40 hostages will be released, in a first phase.
But the sticking point is whether any ceasefire agreement would remove Israeli forces from Gaza in preparation for ending the war, or keep them in place to enable Israel to resume fighting to achieve its stated goals.
Baskin said, “If this point can be overcome, Israel and Hamas have a chance to achieve a successful outcome.”
He continued: “I believe that both sides need a ceasefire now,” referring to the “exhausted Israeli military establishment” that could benefit from the strategic retreat to reevaluate its war goals, and to the ranks of Hamas, which suffered heavy losses, in terms of fighters and infrastructure.
No guarantees
In the same context, senior Palestinian analyst at the International Crisis Group, Tahani Mustafa, said that the lack of clarity of Israel’s position during the ceasefire represents a stumbling block.
She added to the Wall Street Journal: “Israel did not provide any guarantees at all regarding the amount of aid it would allow to pass, and it also did not provide any guarantees for the return of the displaced to the devastated northern Gaza Strip.”
Another sticking point for Israel is that Hamas wants to choose which Palestinian prisoners will be released from Israeli prisons.
Ministers from the far-right have previously threatened to withdraw from Netanyahu’s coalition, to oppose any agreement under which prisoners who are seen as responsible for attacks that caused casualties would be released.
Also at the top of the list of prisoners that Hamas wants to release is Marwan Barghouti, imprisoned since 2002, whom Israel views as someone who can motivate the Palestinian movement for self-determination and the establishment of a state, which Netanyahu steadfastly rejects.
Mustafa adds: “Political prisoners have a very high status in Palestinian society. It is almost a sacred issue. If Hamas is able to release prominent prisoners, this will put them in a better position for a settlement.”
The movement also insists on including about 170 Palestinians who were released from Israeli prisons in 2011 in a hostage swap deal, but were arrested again.
The 2011 deal included the exchange of captured Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit for more than a thousand Palestinian prisoners.
Israel has so far rejected Hamas’s request, and has said that it is prepared to release only 47 Palestinians who have been re-arrested since their release in 2011.
The chief Palestinian analyst at the International Crisis Group said that the recent Israeli military operations further narrow the scope for Hamas to make concessions.
To delegate or not to delegate?
The head of the Israeli intelligence service (Mossad), chief negotiator David Barnea, arrived in Qatar on Monday evening but left on Tuesday morning.
According to a senior Israeli official, Barnea and his team met with the Israeli war cabinet before leaving, and did not get everything he asked for in terms of negotiating powers.
Some mediators in Qatar also said that they do not believe that Netanyahu gave the team a mandate to reach an agreement, which could undermine the talks, according to the American newspaper.
A senior Israeli official described the accusation that Netanyahu does not want to reach an agreement as “incorrect allegations” and said that the prime minister needs to set red lines for the negotiating team to preserve Israel’s war goal of dismantling Hamas’ control of Gaza.
The official said that Hamas leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, would participate directly in the talks, and expected that reaching an agreement would require at least two weeks of discussions.
Meanwhile, the Qatari Foreign Ministry, where the negotiations are taking place, expressed “cautious optimism” about progress in the talks, and its spokesman Majid Al-Ansari told a press conference: “We hope to continue to build on the fact that the talks took place in Doha, and to expand these discussions.” In the coming days”.
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