The Central Bank’s year-end dollar and inflation forecast has changed

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) published its market participant survey for September. The year-end CPI estimate in the survey decreased from 43.31 percent to 43.14 percent. The 12-month CPI expectation decreased from 27.71 percent to 27.49 percent annually. The 24-month CPI expectation decreased from 19.30 percent to 18.38 percent. The Medium Term Program had projected inflation to be 41.5 percent at the end of the year and 17.5 percent by the end of 2025.

YEAR-END DOLLAR/TL ESTIMATE DECREASED TO 37.16

The year-end USD/TL expectation decreased from 37.27 to 37.16. The 12-month-ahead exchange rate increased from 42.03 to 42.43 TL.

INTEREST RATE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12 MONTHS HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 31.66 PERCENT

The Central Bank’s policy rate forecast remained unchanged at 50 percent for this month. The expectation for the 12-month period decreased from 33.30 percent to 31.66 percent. The expectation for the 24-month period decreased from 21.61 percent to 20.85 percent.

GROWTH ESTIMATES REDUCED

In the survey, the year-end growth forecast was reduced from 3.4 percent to 3.2 percent, while for 2025 it was revised down from 3.5 percent to 3.4 percent.

DECLINE IN CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT PROJECTION

In the survey, the year-end current account deficit estimate decreased from $25.5 billion to $22.2 billion. The 2025 end current account deficit estimate also decreased from $25.7 billion to $24.3 billion.