Normalization Process Between Türkiye and Syria Revived

The possibility of reviving the normalization process between Turkey and Syria, which was carried out in 2023 but did not reach a conclusion, has strengthened following the recent contacts between Ankara-Moscow-Damascus.

The Damascus administration emphasizes that the new process should be based on clear foundations. Ankara’s expectation is that Syria will respond positively to Turkey’s call for peace.

The process, which is expected to develop under Russian mediation, is planned to be implemented according to the road map to be agreed upon between the parties.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, in a statement to reporters after returning from the US for the NATO Summit, said that Turkey was ready to re-establish peace with Syria. Erdoğan said, “So far, this process has developed positively. I hope that we will take concrete steps in the near future.”

Erdoğan noted that he gave the roadmap for the process to Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan to be created and that Fidan would continue the process with his relevant colleagues.

According to reports in the Turkish press, the visit of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to Turkey in the coming weeks will be an important opportunity to advance the process.

According to reports in the Turkish and Arab press, but without official comment from sources, Turkish and Syrian intelligence officials have recently held some technical talks under Iraq’s mediation.

It is also considered that the progress achieved in the technical level talks underlie the recent statements of Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein, stating that they are ready to bring President Erdoğan and Syrian President Bashar Assad together in Baghdad.

Whether the new normalization process between Turkey and Syria will develop in the order of intelligence-foreign affairs-government, or whether it will begin with contact between the leaders as Erdoğan said, will become clear according to the talks that take place.

Russia is the main mediator

Despite Iraq’s desire to play a role in the process, Russia stands out as the main mediator of the Türkiye-Syria normalization process.

Moscow first managed to bring together Turkish and Syrian government officials in the last days of 2022 and the first months of 2023, following technical talks between intelligence and foreign ministry officials. However, the process was hampered by Syria’s condition that Turkish troops withdraw from Northern Syria for the political process to progress.

Russia’s initiatives also attracted attention in the resumption of the current process.

Alexander Levrantiev, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s Special Representative for the Middle East, met with Assad in Damascus in June. After the meeting, Assad said, “We are open to talks with Turkey.”

It is among the assessments that as a result of Moscow’s initiatives, the way has been opened for Damascus to negotiate with Türkiye without preconditions.

It is thought that Russia wants to initiate this process before the US Presidential Elections to be held on November 5, and that it is acting with the expectation that Donald Trump could withdraw troops from Syria during his possible second term as president.

It has also been commented that Russia, which has a significant number of troops and bases in Syria, intends to increase its influence in the Middle East.

In her statement on July 12, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova expressed their determination regarding Ankara-Damascus rapprochement.

“We act with the understanding that normalization between Ankara and Damascus is very important in terms of providing a comprehensive solution to the Syrian problem and strengthening regional security,” Zakharova said.

How will Iran behave?

The Türkiye-Syria normalization process is also being closely monitored by Iran.

Iran, which has provided significant military and political support to Assad since the start of the civil war in 2011, also stepped in during the normalization process last year, but according to Ankara, instead of making a positive contribution, it was the force that encouraged Damascus’s statement that “Turkish troops should withdraw first.”

Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s statement, “We expect Russia and Iran to play a constructive role here,” at a press conference with Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan over the weekend, drew attention as it showed that Ankara has expectations from Tehran and Moscow.

How Iran’s Syria and Middle East policies will develop after the new President Masoud Pezeshkian takes office is among the topics of curiosity.

Pezeshkian, who is expected to take office on July 30, said in his first messages on foreign policy that he would seek close cooperation with countries including Turkey and other neighbors for regional peace and stability.

What are the messages from Syria?

The fact that the latest statement from Damascus did not directly mention the precondition of “withdrawal of Turkish troops” and that Ankara strongly emphasized the principle of Syria’s territorial integrity and political sovereignty is seen as the basis for the parties to meet around the same table again.

In a written statement regarding the normalization process with Turkey, the Syrian Foreign Ministry noted that the goal for Damascus is to “return to the pre-2011 situation” in bilateral relations.

With this statement, Damascus underlined that the Turkey-Syria normalization process should be based on clear foundations and that the goals of the process should be achieved by withdrawing Turkish troops and fighting against “terrorist groups.”

This statement led to the assessment that Damascus had turned the withdrawal of Turkish troops into a goal to be achieved at the end of the process rather than a precondition.

It is also noted that the Damascus administration may request a written agreement to secure these goals in a process that will begin.

Turkey assures us that ‘We will not interfere in internal affairs’

Responding directly to Assad’s statements, Erdoğan noted that Turkey has no intention of interfering in Syria’s internal affairs and is committed to the principle of Syria’s territorial integrity and sovereignty.

Foreign Minister Fidan also stated in a press conference he held over the weekend that Turkey’s desire to normalize relations with Syria should not be perceived as weakness or desperation. Fidan said, “The spirit of the times forces us to seek peace, to seek stability.”

Giving a message to Damascus with the words, “Our President has used his leadership vision here and made a call for peace at the highest level. This is an extremely valuable call, I hope they understand its value,” Fidan reminded that Syria’s security and territorial integrity are also among Turkey’s goals.

From Turkey’s perspective, the issues that will be on the agenda in the negotiations with Syria include reestablishing bilateral relations, determining priority areas of cooperation and taking implementation steps.

Parallel to these, steps to be taken in the field of security, the fight against “terrorism”, border security and the integration of the Syrian National Army, established and led by Turkey, into Syrian security units are also on Ankara’s agenda.

From Türkiye’s perspective, the return of Syrian refugees to their country is also considered as a part of this process.