MEXICO CITY (apro).- The election predictions were fulfilled without major shocks, at least for the government, who managed to make Claudia Sheinbaum become the successor of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, something that had not been contemplated in that strategy It was the behavior of the markets, who have been reacting with fear due to the shadow of the reform of the Judiciary, which in theory, if materialized, would mean that in the next six-year term, Morena would have, in fact, control of all the powers of the Union.
Analysts have said that investments could fall and nervousness about the price of the dollar has been in the Mexican economy for 16 days. Given this, the investment platform in Latin America SURA Investments carried out a projection of the global and local economic panoramas and came to the conclusion that there are ideal conditions to make investments in Mexico, although with the risks inherent to economic trends.
“Looking ahead to the second half of 2024, we are seeing a slight slowdown in the US economy and, on the other hand, there are other regions with better dynamism such as Europe or China. The outlook is favorable in economic matters, there were some fears about a recession in the US, but today there are no signs in the indicators that this will come soon, on the contrary, they have shown strength and resilience. In summary, at a macro level there is a favorable outlook with some risk factors that must be monitored day by day, such as the upcoming elections in the United States, monetary policy decisions and the war between Russia and Ukraine,” commented Valentín Martínez. Rico, vice president of supply and value at SURA Investments.
In this sense, Joaquín Barrera, director of Fixed Income and Investments of the agency, states that ““the panorama of Mexico also looks positive, very aligned with the global trend, “that the US does not fall into recession supports the economic dynamism of Mexico “Although there are challenges specific to the country such as reducing the fiscal deficit, in relative terms and compared to emerging market regions, Mexico looks more solid with an investment grade credit rating that makes it an attractive market for investors.”
SURA Investments points out that inflation is expected to be between 4.30 and 4.50 by the end of the year.
Barrera pointed out that in Mexico, there are three variables that must be monitored:
1.- The presidential elections in Mexico, which have already taken place
2.- The elections in the US towards the third quarter of the year
3.- And monetary policy decisions
“Elections in the US, according to history, will always bring volatility, especially if Donald Trump becomes a presidential candidate again, especially in terms of trade negotiations and exchange rates. In terms of monetary policy, we begin with a positive year with vision of interest rate cuts by the United States and Mexico, however, they have not occurred,” he indicates.
Regarding the exchange rate, it is a variable that reacts very quickly which generates an exacerbation in its movement, the exchange rate reached 18.40 pesos per dollar; However, SURA Investments’ expectation is that it will reach 18.50 or 19 pesos by the end of 2024.
“The Mexican scenario has better conditions than the US so that the Bank of Mexico can reduce interest rates this year. Going forward, there is a window for Banco de México to reduce its interest rate three times in 2024 and end up at 10.25 and even at 10 with a fourth cut,” he points out.
According to SURA Investments, volatility is inherent to financial markets and variable income. However, going forward we continue to see solidity in corporate results and macroeconomic figures, which is a benign outlook for equities.
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2024-06-20 16:59:58