Consolidated forecast of sociological agencies for the composition of the 50th National Assembly and for the Bulgarian MEPs – 2024-06-08 22:30:43

As a result of holding two-in-one elections, the current consolidated forecast covers two results for: 1) the composition of the 50th Ordinary National Assembly (ONA); 2) the Bulgarian representation in the European Parliament (2024-2029).

1. Consolidated forecast for the composition of the 50th ONS

The consolidated forecast for the composition of the 50th Ordinary National Assembly was made based on the following approach: 1) the published forecasts for each political formation from 7 out of a total of 9 observed sociological agencies are used; 2) the average ratings of each sociological agency are obtained by weighting according to a formula depending on their distance from the election day, with the greatest weight given to those closest to the voting; 3) the final forecast for each political formation is a weighted average of the average ratings of polling agencies with their credibility ratings obtained after the April 2023 National Assembly elections.

In order to get a more realistic idea about the actual distribution of mandates in the 50th National Assembly and the possibilities of forming a governing majority, two separate forecasts are presented:

Forecast according to the published sociological surveys in the country

The results show the leadership of GERB-SDS with 74 mandates, followed by PP-DB with 44 mandates in a 6-party parliament (Fig. 1).

Forecast according to those who voted in the country and abroad

The forecast according to those who voted in the country and abroad uses the previous forecast as a basis, but the following assumptions are made: 1) the relative share of those who voted abroad will be preserved from the previous elections, determining 17 deputies in the 50th National Assembly; 2) voters abroad will have the same preferences for political formations as on April 2, 2023.

Under these assumptions, the following composition of the 50th ONS is obtained (Fig. 2).

• GERB-SDS ranks first political force with 70 mandates, despite accounting for the most significant loss of 4 mandates as a result of those who voted abroad. However, even with 70 mandates, they are a one-term increase compared to the 49th ONS.

• The “Continuing Change-Democratic Bulgaria” coalition (PP-DB) ranks as the second political formation, this time attracting two mandates from the distribution of votes abroad. They report a significant reduction in the number of mandates compared to the 49th National Assembly from 64 to 46.

• The movement for rights and freedoms this time will also depend on the support the party will receive in Turkey. The political formation would receive the most mandates from the Bulgarians voting abroad – 3, which ranks them as the third political force. Compared to the previous parliament, they received 8 seats more, reaching 44 mandates.

• “Vazrazhdane” is the political formation that is predicted to win 3 mandates more than those in the 49th National Assembly, regardless of whether the votes of voters abroad are taken into account or not.

• “BSP for Bulgaria” loses 1 vote from voters abroad and ranks fifth with 23 mandates, with no change compared to the 49th National Assembly.

• “There is such a people” is the political formation that this time is predicted to enter the parliament with 15 mandates or 4 more than the 49th ONS without relying on votes from abroad.

2. Forecast for the Bulgarian representation in the European Parliament according to the published sociological surveys in the country

The consolidated forecast for the Bulgarian representation in the European Parliament is made based on the following approach: 1) the published forecasts for each political formation from 6 out of a total of 9 monitored sociological agencies that have published separate results for the European Parliament are used; 2) the average ratings of each sociological agency are obtained by weighting according to a formula depending on their distance from the election day, with the greatest weight given to those closest to the voting; 3) the final forecast for each political formation is a weighted average of the polling agencies’ average ratings with their credibility ratings obtained after the National Assembly elections in April 2023. Votes from abroad do not affect the number of mandates and no analysis is presented for this.

Bulgaria has 17 out of a total of 720 seats in the European Parliament 2024-2029.

The forecast is for the entry of 5 parties, as after the previous elections in 2019. There is a change in the parties, as a new formation is Vazrazhdane, and VMRO fails to send its representatives to the European Parliament.

And this time, the first political force is GERB-SDS, maintaining its number of representatives compared to the previous period, gathering 6 mandates.

Three of the political formations have 3 mandates – PP-DB, DPS and Vazrazhdane. DPS maintains its positions, and PP-DB increase its presence by two seats compared to the previous European Parliament.

The most significant reduction in mandates is reported for the BSP, where the forecast foresees 2 mandates compared to 5 in the previous parliament.

Possible deviations of the forecast and conclusions

For the upcoming elections, the number of sections abroad increases from 738 in the previous elections to 769, and in 151 of them, only the National Assembly will be voted for. However, the mobilization of foreign voters in the face of low turnout in the country may increase the number of MPs elected abroad, especially in the election of MPs for the 50th National Assembly. The possibility of voting with a paper ballot could put increasing pressure on the results of some parties.

The consolidated forecast of the voting in the country and abroad for the 50th National Assembly indicates that with such distribution of mandates, it will be necessary to form a coalition of at least three political formations.