On New Year’s Eve I repeated to many people that I collectively wished for a peaceful year. I already have to admit that things are going badly. Very bad start.
Published at 1.15am Updated at 5am
On Tuesday, as much of the world was recovering from New Year’s celebrations, a drone strike killed Saleh al-Arouri, Hamas’ No. 2.
It was predictable. Israel – which has not claimed responsibility for the assassination – has promised for two months to eliminate all the leaders of the Palestinian Islamic organization responsible for the October 7 terrorist attacks.
However, the location of the January 2 strike is not ordinary. We could even say that the choice was reckless. Mr. Arouri was in Beirut, Lebanon, in Hezbollah’s stronghold, when he was killed along with other Hamas commanders.
PHOTO MOHAMED AZAKIR, REUTERS
On Wednesday, firefighters were working near the building – which can be seen damaged at the back – where Saleh al-Arouri was when he was killed.
The Shiite armed movement, a heavyweight in Lebanese politics, already has a foot in the conflict that has pitted its Hamas allies against Israel since 7 October. Now we wonder if he won’t dive headlong into the issue. The result would be the expansion of the war that has already caused tens of thousands of deaths in 90 days in Israel, the Gaza Strip, the West Bank and the southern border of Lebanon.
And that’s not all. A double explosion in Iran – which left at least 100 dead – has raised fears of an even bigger fire in the region. The Iranian regime is already talking about the worst “terrorist attack” in the last 40 years. No one has claimed responsibility for the deadly event.
What we know is that the objective was a ceremony in memory of Qassem Soleimani, the powerful Iranian general killed by an American attack on January 3, 2020. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, supreme leader of Iran promises “harsh revenge”, but yes he refrained from naming a culprit, unlike some senior figures in the same regime who point the finger at Israel and its American ally.
Here is a second match striking near an already punctured oil barrel.
Unfortunately, we don’t stop there. Two far-right Israeli ministers have sparked controversy by publicly calling for the mass emigration of Palestinians from the Gaza Strip and the return of Israeli settlements to the enclave.
“More than 70% of the Israeli public today supports a humanitarian solution that encourages the voluntary emigration of Arabs from Gaza and their absorption into other countries,” Bezalel Smotrich, Israel’s finance minister, wrote on the social network.
As Itamar Ben-Gvir, Israel’s Minister of National Security, who made similar remarks, drew the ire of the Arab world, which saw it as a call for ethnic cleansing, but also the remonstrances of the spokesman for the US Department of Defense United States. State. Nothing to calm things down.
Are we close to the explosion? “We are not yet at a turning point, but at a tipping point,” Marie-Joëlle Zahar, a political science professor at the University of Montreal and an expert in conflict resolution, told me on Wednesday.
PHOTO MARTIN CHAMBERLAND, LA PRESSE ARCHIVE
Marie-Joëlle Zahar, professor of political science at the University of Montreal and expert in conflict resolution
The next 48 hours will be decisive. Either things will calm down or a regional war awaits us.
Marie-Joëlle Zahar, conflict resolution expert
And why 48 hours? Because this is the time that Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has given himself to reflect. This feared ally of Iran, which hosts part of the Hamas leadership, finds itself at the crossroads of events in recent days.
Middle East watchers thus waited with bated breath for his speech on Wednesday.
PHOTO ANWAR AMRO, AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
People watch Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s televised speech in a Beirut suburb.
The man who showed up Wednesday afternoon was surprisingly calm. After a litany of greetings, the strongman of the Shiite movement, who appears on the list of terrorist entities drawn up by the Canadian government, condemned Israel’s “blatant attack”, promised a possible response to “avenge the martyrs”, but he abstained from declaring war on the Jewish state.
Instead, he promised to reveal more about his intentions on Friday – “if I’m still alive” – in another speech that will be even more eagerly awaited than Wednesday’s.
It’s called buying time, but it’s not reassuring at all. The fuse is on.
2024-01-04 06:15:23
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