4 Risks Israel Faces if It Carries Out a Retaliatory Attack on Iran

TEL AVIV – Israel vowed to retaliate against Iran, risking expanding a shadow war between the two foes into outright conflict after Iran’s attack at the weekend sent hundreds of drones and missiles towards Israel.

Israeli officials have not said how or when they will carry out an attack. But as countries around the world urge Israel to exercise restraint and the threat of a multi-front war increases, it is clear that a direct Israeli attack on Iranian territory would have a major impact.

Iran said it carried out the attack in response to an Israeli airstrike that killed two Iranian generals in Syria on April 1. Iran promised a tougher response to any Israeli counterattack on its territory.

As Israel focuses on its war against Hamas in Gaza, and daily combat against Iranian-backed Hezbollah militants in Lebanon, the US has urged Israel to exercise restraint.

US officials said President Joe Biden had told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the US would not take part in any offensive action against Iran, and the president had been “very clear” to Netanyahu “that we have to think carefully and strategically” regarding the risks of escalation.

Israel’s war cabinet has spent the past two days debating next steps. Here are some considerations that were key to their decision.

4 Risks Israel Faces if It Carries Out a Retaliatory Attack on Iran

1. Increasing Israel’s Isolation

Photo/AP

According to the AP, the success of Israel’s air defense on Saturday night – carried out jointly with the US, UK, France and Jordan – gave the country short-lived international support and sympathy after months of increasing international isolation over the Gaza war. The six-month offensive has killed nearly 34,000 Palestinians, according to local health officials, and unleashed a humanitarian catastrophe.

A coalition of international partners helps Israel defend itself effectively. The Israeli military said 99% of the weapons were intercepted, and only a few reached Israeli airspace. The attack caused only minor damage and injured one person: a 7-year-old girl.

The coalition works under the leadership of US Central Command, which oversees American forces in the region. He is working with Israel and moderate Arab countries to form a united front against Iran.

Jordan, a largely pro-Palestinian country, joined the effort, despite its dispute with Israel over the war in Gaza, and called its participation a form of self-defense.