Trump Dominates Early 2024 Republican Primary, Despite Pending Legal Troubles

The Republican Line-up for 2024 Presidential Elections Is Almost Final

All Eyes on Trump As He Dominates the Polls

The Republican Party nomination for the 2024 Presidential Elections in the United States is almost finalized with the announcement of former Vice President Mike Pence and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie joining the group of ten applicants. Despite the presence of a diverse group – with Afro-Americans, women, businessmen, and politicians – all eyes are on Donald Trump, who still dominates the polls and is the favorite to win the contest.

Can Any of the Other Nine Rivals Derail Trump’s Locomotive?

The only question that remains is whether any of the other nine rivals have a chance of derailing the former President’s locomotive, and the current answer seems to be no, despite all the legal entanglements that persecute Trump. The federal charges against him for the alleged illegal removal of classified documents recently confirmed this week has further added to his legal woes. The DOJ has indicted him with “withholding information on national security” and “obstruction of justice” that mark Trump’s first encounter with federal crimes.

Trump Denies All Accusations Against Him

Trump denies all the accusations against him, and his supporters continue to protect and support him. The latest polls show that the former President leads the Republican race with 53 percent intention to vote. Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida, is the only one who can compete with Trump, with 21 percent support. Pence and Haley only register 5 and 4.5 percent, respectively.

The Battle Against Trump

All of Trump’s opponents face the same problem in this race, Trump’s popularity is enormous within the Republican base. Attacking him is viewed as an act of treason, therefore, most candidates have chosen to present themselves as “versions” of the former president, but better. Almost all of them believe in “Trumpism”, a more radical and populist version of the Republican establishment.

Recently, only Pence and Christie have stepped outside the norm to attack Trump. Pence accused him of creating a constitutional crisis by refusing to accept the results of the 2020 elections and blamed him for the riots at the Capitol.

Former Vice President Mike Pence Challenges Trump

Despite the harsh words from his former right-hand man, Pence has not been successful in creating a rift within the Republican base. While some Republican candidates have expressed concerns over Trump’s presidential suitabilities, his base denies claims of electoral fraud and sees him as a victim of judicial persecution.

Trump’s Primaries Advantage

Furthermore, Trump’s large number of rivals fighting for the Republican nomination could work in his favor. “If anti-Trumpism were to consolidate around a single candidate, there would be the possibility of dethroning him,” says Jon Ausman, a former presidential elections consultant. However, other Republican candidates will share the rest of the votes while Trump secures his victory.

Aspirations of Competing Republican Candidates

Various motivations are behind the numerous presidential applications. Some candidates hope to secure their position as Trump’s vice-presidential running mate, while others aspire to earn a Republican government ministry or position themselves for a future governorship or Senate.

The potential successor to Trump, 44-year-old Ron DeSantis, could benefit most from the experience of competing in primaries against Trump.

The Biden-Trump Battle Will Repeat in 2024

However, others believe that multiple legal challenges facing Trump could potentially prevent him from securing the nomination. “When the time comes to vote, many might say: ‘I like Trump, but I don’t think he can win overall. Better give someone else the vote,'” says Ausman.

Biden’s candidacy may not excite Democrats, especially those under 30 years old. Additionally, Biden’s age, 80, leads to concerns about his ability to perform well in debates with his opponent.

Biden’s low 43% favorability rate adds another weak point for his image. But with Trump, who turns 77 this week, such arguments become less relevant. The possibility of a return of the former president to the White House and all the drama that comes with it could potentially mobilize the Democratic base, which currently appears lukewarm.

While strong among Republicans, Trump may not appeal to independent voters who generally determine electoral outcomes and could be influenced by his legal troubles. Barring last-minute surprises, the US seems poised for a repeat of that explosive 2020 duel from which it has yet to recover.

By Sergio Gomez Maseri
Weather Correspondent
Washington
On Twitter: @sergom68