The Falling USD and Its Impact on Mexican Peso: Inflation Report and Upcoming Fed Policy Announcement

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Published 13.06.2023 07:55

SUPER PESO CELEBRATES: Dollar price falls after surprise US inflation
© Reuters.

By Julio Sanchez Onofre

Investing.com – The price of the dollar in Mexico took a downward trend today after the release of inflation data for May in the United States. The data for May came slightly below expected, and it will determine the monetary policy decision of the United States Federal Reserve (Fed), which will be announced this Wednesday, June 14.

At 7:40 a.m., Mexico City time, the exchange rate was at 17.26 units, which represents an appreciation of the peso of around 0.15% against the US dollar, although earlier the parity reached 17.23 units, registering a new year-on-year minimum.

“At the opening of the American session, it extends part of the advance established moments after the US inflation report was published and is positioned in 16th place among the currencies of emerging countries that present the highest gains against the dollar”, commented Janneth Quiroz Zamora, deputy director of Economic Analysis at Monex Grupo Financiero Monex.

The appreciation of the national currency occurs after it was announced that inflation in the United States was the lowest since March 2021. This result was lower than the 4.1% forecast and below the 4.9% of the previous reading.

“The confirmation that inflation in the United States shows a clear downward trend, including core inflation, fuels speculation that tomorrow the Fed will pause the cycle of interest rate increases,” said Gabriela Siller Pagaza, Director of Economic and Financial Analysis at Banco Base.

With the performance of the exchange rate shown this morning, with an exchange rate reaching 17.24 spot, “the Mexican peso tries to consolidate itself at a new, best level in the last seven years, in a day marked by the key inflation data May in the United States, very relevant to try to clarify the path that the Fed plans to take with interest rates”, explained Jorge Gordillo Arias, director of Economic and Stock Market Analysis at CIBanco.

Once this data is known, the markets’ attention will be focused on the Fed’s monetary policy announcement, where the markets are betting that the central bank will declare a pause in interest rate hikes, although they do not rule out further increases in interest rates. subsequent meetings.

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USD Falls Following Lower Than Expected US Inflation Numbers

The US dollar fell against the Mexican peso as inflation numbers from May in the US were released that were lower than expected. The falling numbers will contribute to the monetary policy discussion of the upcoming US Federal Reserve announcement on June 14th.

The Mexican Peso Appreciates in Response to US Inflation Figures

At 7:40 a.m. local time, the exchange rate was at 17.26 units per US dollar, representing an appreciation of the peso of around 0.15%. Earlier the same day, the parity reached 17.23 units, registering a new year-on-year minimum, and it is now positioned in 16th place among the currencies of emerging countries that present the highest gains against the dollar.

Interest Rate Pause Anticipated Following US Federal Reserve Announcement

The Fed is planned to announce their monetary policy decision on June 14th, with attention focusing on how the bank will respond to the latest inflation numbers and markets expecting the central bank to declare a pause in interest rate hikes. Nevertheless, further interest rate increases are still a possibility for subsequent meetings.

The Mexican Peso Consolidates at Its Best Performance in Seven Years

With an exchange rate reaching 17.24 spot, the Mexican peso is trying to consolidate itself at a new, best level of performance in the past seven years. This success occurs after it was announced that inflation in the United States was the lowest since March 2021, and fuelled speculation that the Fed will pause the cycle of interest rate increases.

Low US Inflation Numbers Foster Speculation on Interest Rates Changes

Gabriela Siller Pagaza, Director of Economic and Financial Analysis at Banco Base, commented that “the confirmation that inflation in the United States shows a clear downward trend, including core inflation, fuels speculation that tomorrow the Fed will pause the cycle of interest rate increases.”

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Latest Updates on the Mexican Peso-Dollar Exchange Rate and Bitcoin Value - Worldys News June 28, 2023 - 6:24 pm

[…] depreciation of 0.14% or 2.4 cents. It is currently trading around 17.10 pesos per dollar, with the exchange rate reaching a maximum of 17.1237 and a minimum of 17.0462 pesos per […]

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